The pressure on Theresa May is starting to build and the next two weeks or so will be crucial. The Irish are demanding progress on the backstop solution and talks are scheduled each day this week between the EU and British negotiators (HERE) to try and solve the intractable problem of the Irish border. This is to be ready to present proposals for the EU summit on 28th June.
It would be a shock if the UK government was to produce a workable plan for anything (either the two customs options or the backstop) at this late hour which was acceptable to the EU, the DUP and the Brexiteers. The EU does not expect any progress.
Leaders from big UK companies like GSK, BT, Tesco, etc met the PM yesterday at a Business Advisory Council meeting (HERE) and warned her that a frictionless border is more important than tariffs. The government in an official announcement claimed the group "supported" the government's approach of producing a white paper "shortly" (HERE). I'll bet.
As if this wasn't enough, the EU Withdrawal bill returns to The House on 12th June (HERE) where the government has scheduled 12 hours for all 15 amendments to be debated and voted on. MPs are very unhappy at this cutting short of what as been described as the most important piece of legislation in living memory - and perhaps ever.
On the same day, the Article 50 Challenge preliminary hearing is due at The High Court in London and may rule the case has merit and should go to a full hearing. This would cast an even greater fog of uncertainty over the whole Brexit process by ruling there may not have been a constitutional decision to leave the EU. A full hearing at the court at a future date would then have to decide the matter. On this topic, Helen Mountfield, in Prospect Magazine (HERE) argues that:
Britain’s constitutional arrangements require parliamentary authority not only to notify an intention to leave the EU, but also actually to leave. The latter has not yet been conferred. It will be granted, if it is passed, by the European Union (Withdrawal) Bill, currently going through parliament.
This is her opinion, David Wolchover, who first pointed this anomaly out, claims the government has overreached itself by notifying the EU that a decision has already been made when clearly it hasn't. Anyway we shall see what happens on the 12th.
And it is now being reported the cabinet is about to make a decision on Heathrow's third runway (HERE) which is bound to cause the PM problems. If it doesn't go ahead it will look like "global" Britain is turning inwards and if it does go ahead, BoJo will probably resign. He has vowed to lay down in front of the bulldozers - we can only hope.
