Some time ago Ed Balls, the former Labour MP now working at Harvard, produced a report (HERE) about negotiating a free trade deal with the USA. The report concluded that
"We can summarise the prospects and potential benefits of a US-UK FTA across five dimensions – strategic interest; timeline and capacity; tariffs; non-tariff barriers and regulations; and politics and negotiability – as in Table 1 below. The conclusion is clear: a US-UK FTA is only going to happen if the UK makes concessions that are unlikely to be politically acceptable and in any case, promises relatively limited upside for UK business. However, the importance of such a deal to the overall Brexit narrative (and specifically, to the case for leaving the Customs Union) means that the Government is likely to continue to behave as if negotiating an attractive deal with the US remains a realistic possibility".
Trump has now launched the first skirmish in what increasingly looks like a trade war (HERE). Even Liam Fox has condemned it but still apparently believes a free trade deal is possible and desirable (HERE).
So, Trump the protectionist, the America-first president, the leader of an economy about eight times that of the United Kingdom, will, we are supposed to believe, give us a good trade deal! He has made it as clear as he possibly could that he wants the massive US trade deficit to be reduced and turned into a surplus if possible. Whatever you think about free trade, it must be clear that Trump's objective can only be met by dramatically increasing US exports and reducing imports.
Brexiteers complain we run a deficit in goods with the EU but have a surplus with America. After a Trump trade deal we will be running a deficit with both and our farming community will be decimated. We are leaving our friends of 40 years, with whom we have built up very close trading and cultural links, to form a partnership with the USA, bent on profiting at our expense.
Trump does not see free trade as a way of increasing wealth on both sides of a deal in a fair and equitable way. For him it is about winning and losing - and he will not be the loser, we will.
