Sunday 15 July 2018

NO MORE CONCESSIONS? DON'T HOLD YOUR BREATH

Davis is warning that the government has made enough concessions and further resignations should be expected (HERE) if any more are made. I seem to remember Theresa May once saying the next person to find out she was a "bloody difficult woman" was Jean Claude Juncker, since when she has made many concessions. Brexit does strange things like that doesn't it. If the roles were reversed, Mrs May would be resigning and Davis would be making concessions. In fact, Brexit is one of those things, like driving in thick fog for instance, where you always think you can do a better job - until you try it yourself.

Everybody who is now bellowing a lot of jingoistic nonsense on the sidelines, from Farage to Rees-Mogg, and now Davis and Johnson no doubt, would make demands and tell the EU where to get off, and not give concessions. Have their cake and eat it as well - until they were in control that is.

The Brexiteers inhabit the same social and political echo chambers. They each reinforce the rubbish of the others. But step outside and sooner or later they will have to confront reality.

You would have to be close to a psychopath to have convincingly logical things explained to you, by roomfull's of serious men, mandarins in the civil service or at the top of big multi national businesses, that your policy will be disastrous for the economy and for The City or decimate huge industrial areas of the North East and West Midlands - and still go ahead. To gamble with the future of thousands of families you would need to be recklessly stupid. The problem is that the advice is often in writing and filed away in the archives, likely to surface at any time in the future.

Imagine, if the disaster happened or was even worse than forecast, and it's revealed that you were specifically warned in great detail about it and against all advice, decided to proceed anyway because you hoped or thought it would be alright? That all the experts were indeed wrong and you, the amateur was right. 

No, prime ministers are not gamblers no matter who is doing the job. And all the problems would be the same. I think the prospect of going on national TV amid power cuts, food shortages and rising unemployment and explaining that we were facing an unprecedented emergency because of Brexit would concentrate the most extreme mind.

Expect more concessions.