This report by Gary Gibbon at Channel 4 HERE suggests Theresa May is going to beg EU leaders not to dismiss her "third way" ideas, which are to be presented to cabinet this Friday, out of hand and to at least consider them. If true, and it certainly sounds plausible, one has to wonder what she's up to. She must know the proposals are totally without merit as far as the EU are concerned. Does she genuinely think they might be the basis for serious negotiations? Surely not.
If she does, then she is going to be sadly disappointed. The EU will reject her third way for sure. They may offer a bit of sympathy and give the appearance of considering it but it has no hope of success. But what happens then?
Either she will be forced to accept a Norway style deal or a CETA. Switzerland's deal is complex and shaky and not one the EU want to repeat so this is definitely off the table. CETA will cripple cross border trade by introducing serious friction. The car industry in the UK wouldn't survive (see today's post HERE) and possibly Airbus and many other companies would leave or halt further investment which would be tantamount to leaving. This surely isn't palatable to her. Neither is no deal, which would be even worse, laying waste to large sections of industry and disrupting every facet of life in this country.
This leaves a Norway style deal, which is totally unacceptable to the ultra Brexiteers, the right wing press and many leave voters. It wouldn't solve the Irish border problem anyway, for that we also need to be in a customs union. The Norway/Sweden border is hard because Norway is outside the CU as we know, technology might help to minimise it but won't remove it. The benefit is that at least a Norway option will cause the least damage economically, although we are going to look quite meek as a rule taker.
She might wring a few concessions out of the EU to make it appear she has a special deal that she could sell to the country but it wouldn't be acceptable in any way to Brexiteers.
So, one way or another the crunch is coming.
