The EU argument that has raged inside the Tory party like a rumbling volcano for thirty years or more is about to erupt. With BoJo and Davis both said to be planning big, Geoffrey Howe style resignation speeches and Johnson apparently re-employed at The Telegraph where he will be trying to do maximum damage to Theresa May, we are watching the first serious wisps of smoke beginning to appear. Both sides are gearing up for the final conflict to settle the question forever.
Alan Duncan, the Foreign Office minister is saying the party is headed down the plug hole (HERE) unless it comes together, Jacob Rees-Mogg is warning the party will split unless May changes course (HERE) and accuses the PM of acting in an "untrusting" way - whatever that means (HERE). Lord Spicer has even suggested splitting into leavers and remainers is precisely what the party should do (HERE). The Tories are in serious trouble. Davis is said to be planning a speech in The House as early as today.
Can Mrs May survive? She could probably survive a leadership challenge but parliamentary votes are due on the trade bill and the Brexiteers are pledged to vote against it. If she loses such a crucial vote, she may have to call a general election.
Can the party survive? Probably not, at least in its present form. The problem for the Tories is divided parties never do well in general elections and this is even assuming they could ever agree on a common manifesto, which I doubt. Finding a form of fudged words that appears to unite them would be devilishly hard and almost certainly wouldn't last five minutes in the heat of an election campaign.
If there was a clearer indication of how utterly insoluble and ridiculous the Brexit problem is, it is this article by Robin Walker former DEXEU minister, calling for the party to "deliver on their manifesto commitments and guarantee prosperity". These are mutually exclusive. We can have one or the other. Membership of the EU is what guarantees prosperity but he campaigned for the UK to leave (HERE) and Mrs May would argue she is already delivering on her manifesto commitments anyway.
Justine Greening, former Conservative education minister is calling for a second referendum (HERE) and both she and Bernard Jenkins spoke on the Today programme this morning. It was fascinating to hear Jenkins, when asked what his alternative to the Chequers plan was, said we should just deliver the result of the referendum! It's a completely circular argument isn't it? He has no idea how Brexit should go and neither has anybody else.
Colm McCarthy at The Irish Independent HERE thinks Brexit is morphing into a constitutional crisis. He's a bit late, we've been in the crisis ever since the referendum, we just didn't realise it. The people were recklessly urged to vote for the unattainable without the slightest thought about the role of parliament in our representative democracy or how any government was going to deliver something that is not and never was available. That is to leave the EU and do so in a way that does not damage our economy.
Parliament has an inbuilt majority to remain. MPs are not delegates and owe a duty to their constituents to do their best for them even if the constituents don't agree. Let the people demand whatever they want, if the MP doesn't agree he should vote against it.
The government gave the people a choice in a simple in or out referendum. It is now the people against parliament and these are dangerous times ahead, not just for the Conservative party but for parliamentary democracy.
