Sir Bernard Jenkin, knight of the realm and idiot, writes in the Sunday Telegraph (HERE) that all this talk of chaos at the border after Brexit is simply intended to "frighten MPs into keeping the UK tied to the EU, or stopping Brexit altogether". But apparently we needn't bother because the talk isn't going to worry him. He says, "Our voters are made of sterner stuff, and so are we". I think he means thicker stuff but never mind. He claims:
"On Day One of Brexit, the nature of the trade across the English Channel will not suddenly be different. Neither the EU nor the UK is about to rip up all our product standards. So these delays will not be needed".
Jenkin and others seem to think becoming a third country to the EU has no consequences and trade will simply carry on as before because we have the same product standards. If simply having the same standards meant frictionless borders this might be true but how do you prove the standard is being met? Companies in EU member countries are subject to all the market surveillance and enforcement mechanisms under the aegis of the ECJ. Our companies would not be, hence products - including products of animal origin - will need to be checked at the border. He just does not get it.
I recommend he reads section 3.11 (page 12) of the Dover District Council report (HERE) on Brexit, which begins "Leaving the EU is likely to have a major impact on border controls at points of entry into the UK". It then goes on for two pages setting out the horrendous problems this will cause at Dover. It's a far cry from the "nothing will change" description of it all that Jenkin would have you believe.
"If there is no agreement at all, the EU and the UK will phase in customs checks, and only those which are most necessary, over a period of months and years.", he goes on.
I think what he believes will happen is the UK authorities will waive through trucks from the EU (totally against WTO rules) but gradually introduce customs check after that as capacity is installed. He doesn't explain how trucks will get back to the EU if France re-introduces customs checks as they must under EU law and Calais/Dover is completely clogged up. Pretty quickly most of the trucks will be on our side of the Channel.
"We could quickly introduce a series of comprehensive mutual recognition agreements for products standards, just like the EU has with many countries where they don’t have a free trade agreement, avoiding the need for checks at frontiers. Over time, there will be technology for frictionless customs checks".
In other words if we can't get a deal, we'll quickly get a series of little deals. For the umpteenth time, the EU has NO mutual recognition agreements for "product standards" with any third countries as Jenkin seems to think. They have mutual recognition of product "conformity assessment" something quite different - but even this doesn't preclude occasional border checks.
What I think I can say is that Telegraph readers seem to be slowly realising the consequences. Whereas a year ago such an article would have had close to 100% support in the comments section, I note there are now a lot of dissenting voices - including this one, "Jenkin cannot be that stupid. He must be knowingly misleading the public.".
Err, no. I think he is that stupid.
By the way I came across an American document called the 2018 National Trade Estimate Report. It sets out what the US thinks are the problems with their trading partners - including (not to say mostly) with the EU. The USA is a third country, a very large, powerful and influential third country at that, but it is still treated by the EU as a third country with all the attendant frictions that brings. The report is 500 pages long and is published annually. The 2018 copy devotes 48 pages to the EU. I'll go through it and post something to show Sir Bernard what it's like to become a third country. He might learn something, although I doubt it.
Err, no. I think he is that stupid.
By the way I came across an American document called the 2018 National Trade Estimate Report. It sets out what the US thinks are the problems with their trading partners - including (not to say mostly) with the EU. The USA is a third country, a very large, powerful and influential third country at that, but it is still treated by the EU as a third country with all the attendant frictions that brings. The report is 500 pages long and is published annually. The 2018 copy devotes 48 pages to the EU. I'll go through it and post something to show Sir Bernard what it's like to become a third country. He might learn something, although I doubt it.
