Jeremy Hunt, our latest foreign secretary, has adopted a different approach to Brexit. The converted remainer, once described as an "affable lummox" by someone who knew him at university, has taken to warning the EU that we aren't going to blink and unless they back down and give us what we want, there will be no deal (HERE). Nobody takes him seriously. In Brussels they know we will soon have a twitch to rival Herbert Lom playing commander Dreyfus in the Pink Panther movies.
This is the man who didn't seem to know whether his wife was Chinese or Japanese. It's an easy mistake to make, once you're past Greece going eastward they all look the same don't they? And we thought BoJo was an embarrassment!
Seeing him threaten the EU is like watching Pinocchio squaring up to Mike Tyson in his prime. If the EU don't give us what we want he'll make himself sick perhaps?
We ought to start taking bets on when we'll blink. My guess is it will be around October. Mrs May can't afford to compromise too much until after the party conference but afterwards, as business starts to crank up the pressure she probably won't be able to resist. There is no possibility of getting to Christmas with the prospect of leaving without a deal. Davis' madcap idea that it would go down to the wire is just not credible. Businesses that need to relocate and can relocate would relocate. Investors would take fright, the pound would head for parity with the zloty and chaos in general would reign.
Solid, pragmatic, dependable nations like the UK do not usually steer for the cliff edge anyway but they certainly don't go over it.
This country has been a magnet for inward investment precisely because of its stability and place inside the single market. Giving up that place in the EU is one thing but doing it in a disorderly fashion, for the Conservative party, would be suicidal. They know that.
What's happening is an elaborate charade to try and force the EU to concede access to the single market but ultimately, if the EU stick to their principles we'll probably settle for the Norway option. Ignore all the no-deal talk and the threats of Jeremy Hunt's unblinking stare, it ain't going to happen.
We will capitulate long before that.
