Sometimes I'm tempted to laugh at all these really dire predictions about Brexit. We will not leave without a deal. I say that with 100% confidence. It is inconceivable that politicians in the UK and in the EU would create a crisis situation where trade and jobs took a significant hit (on both sides, but far more on ours) because of an arbitrary date, one that can quite easily be moved. A few lunatic Brexiteers might complain at a delay but 90+% of the population would recognise it's a sensible thing to do.
Brexit will damage us in the short, medium and long term but I really don't think there will be food and medicine shortages. Politician's instinct for survival should never be underestimated.
Last week there were a number of reports that our security services have been bugging the Commission (HERE) and knew a day or two before the Chequers meeting that the EU were about to scupper Mrs May's emerging plan. We apparently obtained a slide presentation within hours of it being shown internally and we then persuaded countries to pressurise the Commission not to publish it - and they didn't. This was claimed to be because of fears the government would fall.
Last week there were a number of reports that our security services have been bugging the Commission (HERE) and knew a day or two before the Chequers meeting that the EU were about to scupper Mrs May's emerging plan. We apparently obtained a slide presentation within hours of it being shown internally and we then persuaded countries to pressurise the Commission not to publish it - and they didn't. This was claimed to be because of fears the government would fall.
I can see it would not be in the EU's interests for Mrs May to be toppled, because it would create even more uncertainty, particularly about who they might end up negotiating with and on what basis. But the sinking of her White Paper hopes can't be delayed forever. So, what was the benefit to them?
I suppose getting a bit closer to the March deadline strengthens their hand since only they can agree the extension that will be crucial.
But what is it that the negotiators are doing at the moment? Northern Ireland is still a huge problem and every new round of talks has the border issue on the agenda but as for progress - we never see any. I think they're just treading water.
Does Mrs May seriously think her Chequers proposal is a basis for an agreement? I really doubt it, but it is good enough to give the appearance that it's a possibiity. Even if she thought so at the beginning, officials must have shown her the EU slides which explain why it is just not feasible. Is it all part of a choreographed plan between the UK and the EU to eat up the time and see how public opinion goes? Perhaps it is.
The polls are starting to move. A majority now think Brexit will be bad for the NHS according to this report (HERE). We know young people are overwhelmingly in favour of remaining in the EU and surely politicians must appreciate it is the future of the next generation that is being negotiated. Will they thank the Conservative party for Brexit? I don't believe they will.
I also ask myself what I would do if I was Theresa May. Deep down I know we need to be in the EU. But I know to give even the tiniest hint that this was my thinking would mean the end of my government and any chance of remaining in the EU. So. she gives the impression - and keeps on giving the impression - that she is a hard Brexiteer. If by Christmas there is no progress - and I think this is very likely - and the polls continue to show falling support for Brexit, I can't see an alternative to another vote.
However, even if remain won, a heroic assumption perhaps, the nation would still be divided. How would that be overcome? I think the answer to this is inside the Conservative party and nowhere else.
Eventually, the party must split. The Tory European division is at the heart of our problems. The schizophrenia about the EU has brought us to the edge of disaster. It would be better for the country if it separated into two distinct parties and let the electorate decide. If the anti-EU faction (think of it as UKIP) could convince a majority of the electorate about the so-called benefits of Brexit and an election produced a party truly in favour of Brexit then they can lead us over the cliff and take responsibility for it.
For too long, the Brexiteers have lived a parasitical life inside the Conservative party and have temporarily almost taken it over. The messages coming from the Tories are badly mixed and confusing. Let there be a proper distinction and we may finally get clarity about what the Conservative party stands for.
For too long, the Brexiteers have lived a parasitical life inside the Conservative party and have temporarily almost taken it over. The messages coming from the Tories are badly mixed and confusing. Let there be a proper distinction and we may finally get clarity about what the Conservative party stands for.
