Professor Sir John Curtice is the ultimate authority on political polling in the UK. He has a comment piece on the WhatUKthinks website (HERE) which I think is useful. He discusses the likelihood of a second vote and it seems to indicate mostly cautious good news (for remainers).
He summarises the results of a number of recent polls between April and August this year in two table. The whole point of his article is that the wording of the question is crucial. If voters think they are being asked if they want a something that looks like a "second referendum", there is much less support than if the question is posed as a "public vote" on the deal. And also if the options are to remain in the EU.
Nevertheless, it is surprising that nine of the eleven polls, the exception being the bottom two of the second table, show support for a second vote.
The tables he prepared are shown below with the actual question asked and the result. In the first example, 50% are in favour while 25% are against. But in that poll note also a majority of leave voters are in favour if there was no deal.
A key finding is that many leave voters are still quite happy to leave without a deal - in some cases up to 74%. For them no deal holds no fears at all. I think as reality bites these voters (who clearly don't realise what no deal means in practice) this figure should come down. I can believe people are that gullible, but not that stupid.
He summarises the results of a number of recent polls between April and August this year in two table. The whole point of his article is that the wording of the question is crucial. If voters think they are being asked if they want a something that looks like a "second referendum", there is much less support than if the question is posed as a "public vote" on the deal. And also if the options are to remain in the EU.
Nevertheless, it is surprising that nine of the eleven polls, the exception being the bottom two of the second table, show support for a second vote.
The tables he prepared are shown below with the actual question asked and the result. In the first example, 50% are in favour while 25% are against. But in that poll note also a majority of leave voters are in favour if there was no deal.
A key finding is that many leave voters are still quite happy to leave without a deal - in some cases up to 74%. For them no deal holds no fears at all. I think as reality bites these voters (who clearly don't realise what no deal means in practice) this figure should come down. I can believe people are that gullible, but not that stupid.
