The Daily Telegraph's Ambrose Evans-Pritchard takes issue with Mark Carney and his claim that the UK is at the bottom of the G7 growth league (HERE). His article is titled: Lies, Damned Lies and Mark Carney's statistics. He actually challenges two assertions made by Mr Carney, the other being that growth has been cut by 2% since June 2016. First of all let's get the OECD growth figures for the G7 (HERE).
For the first point Evans-Prtitchard relies on some advanced forecasting by the NIESR that suggests we grew at 0.4% in Q2. I have read that the growth figure due this week might be as weak as 0.1% so it's all speculative at the moment. I'll update this post later. He says:
"The early evidence so far this year is that Brexit Britain is growing faster than France under Emmanuel Macron, the Gallic wunderkind supposedly reviving animal spirits and unleashing the floods investment. Britain grew 0.2pc in the first quarter, the same as France (revised data in both countries). Japan contracted by 0.2pc.
We do not yet have the UK figures for the second quarter but the National Institute for Economic and Social Research (NESR) said its GDP tracking monitor suggests 0.4pc growth. France and Italy have already published. They are both on 0.2pc.
It's true that this year we will (according to OECD figures) be equal second from bottom with Italy and Japan below us. So, not quite at the very bottom but close to it, more or less where we were in 2017. But in 2016 we were joint top with Germany. And this in a period where world growth is rising from 3.06% in 2016 to 3.82% this year and the pound is about 10% cheaper than it was in 2015. He then claims:
Broadly speaking, the UK is puttering along in step with the sluggish eurozone. If NIESR is right it may even sneak ahead in the second quarter. I would certainly accept that the British economy has slowed a bit as a result of Brexit but it is less than I feared.
The OECD say (HERE) "the euro area is set to continue at a relatively dynamic pace of just above 2 per cent over 2018-19".
It's so hard to know who to believe isn't it? He says the eurozone is sluggsh, the OECD say relatively dynamic. Do we go with a committed Brexiteer writing for the bitterly anti-EU, Eurosceptic newspaper owner by a couple of swivel eyed extreme right wingers, or the OECD? Where are the liars, damned liars and statisticians? On Threadneedle Street or at The Telegraph at 111, Buckingham Palace Road, SW1W?
As for the claim 2% has been lopped off growth I seem to think these numbers are widely accepted as being accurate. You can see from the OECD chart we were growing at a good rate of about 2.7% on average in 2014-15. After Brexit in 2017-18 we are at 1.6% on average, about 1.1% less than before. After two years we should be 2.2% smaller and even Evans-Pritchard admits, "the British economy has slowed a bit as a result of Brexit" so it can't be that far off can it?
