Thursday 2 August 2018

THEY SAW US COMING A MILE AWAY

A few days ago, Bloomberg carried an article (HERE) that was picked up almost immediately by the Brexit Border Blog (HERE). This was about the negotiations and the "cherry picking" or "cakeism with cherries in top" that we have been involved in so far. Bloomberg listed the number of times that Barnier has said there cannot be any cherry picking.

This is the list:

1. “Cherry picking is not an option,” Barnier said in his very first speech as chief Brexit negotiator in December 2016. 

2. “It will not be possible to cherry-pick and be a participant in parts of the Single Market,” he repeated on March 22, 2017. 

3. “The integrity of the Single Market will never be compromised in these negotiations,” he maintained on May 5, 2017. 

4. “I have heard some people in the U.K. argue that one can leave the Single Market and build a customs union to achieve ‘frictionless trade’; that is not possible,” he reiterated on July 6, 2017. 

5. “We ask you to respect the fact that we are uncompromising on the integrity of the Single Market, and on the respect of the rules on the functioning and the autonomy of decision-making in the European Union,” he reasserted on Oct. 3, 2017. 

6. “In these negotiations, one of my main concerns is to maintain the integrity of the Single Market, which is our common good — and is not and will not be negotiable,” he explained yet again on Jan. 9, 2018. 

7. “Outside of the Customs Union and the Single Market, there can be no frictionless trade,” he insisted on April 26, 2018. 

8 “The United Kingdom has decided to leave the European Union’s Single Market and the Customs Union,” he reminded an audience on July 10. “This means that Brexit will create friction to trade that does not exist today.”

9. “The EU cannot — and will not — delegate the application of its customs policy and rules, VAT and excise duty collection to a non-member, who would not be subject to the EU’s governance structures.” he said once again in Brussels on 26th July.

Bloomberg didn't mention a couple of other occasions which are also significant, although not actually uttered by the man himself. On March 29th 2017, Mrs May wrote the infamous Article 50 letter and set out the principles for the "discussions" (odd that, she didn't use the word negotiations - is that significant?), saying we did "not seek membership of the single market : we understand and respect your position that the four freedoms of the single market are indivisible and there can be no cherry picking".

And on the 31st March 2017 The General Secretariat of the EU Council replied saying, "The European Council welcomes the recognition by the British government that the four freedoms of the single market are indivisible and there can be no cherry picking".

The Chequers White Paper is published sometime in July 2018 and is nothing but cherry picking. In fact it takes cherry picking to entirely new heights. 

The EU knew what was coming right from June 24th 2016 and were prepared for it. They saw exactly what we were going to do, in fact what we had to do and what we must do, and that is to retain trading arrangements as they are now. The only question then as now is the political and economic price we are prepared to pay to get it or - to lose it.

I posted about Dover yesterday and in doing the research, read the DDC report on Brexit (HERE). It has some interesting stuff to show why frictionless trade is not just needed or even desirable but absolutely crucial, viz:-

As the ‘Gateway to Europe’, a principal concern for Dover is the ability for the Port to cope with the volume of freight and customs if there are changes to the free movement of goods;this is because there is limited inspection space at the Port. Most goods entering or leaving the UK on a vehicle (to or from the EU) go through a roll-on/roll-off (ro/ro) port or terminal, of which the Port of Dover is the largest.  Dover handles one sixth of the UK’s total trade in goods with a value of £119bn per year. Latest figures show that around 2.6 million freight vehicles passed through the Port of Dover in 2017. Nearly all (99%) freight moved through the port is intra-EU. To give an idea of the scale of freight, if all lorries that pass through Dover in a single day were lined up end to end in lane 1, they would stretch from the port to London’s Stansted Airport, almost 100 miles away .

The Channel Tunnel also operates as a ro/ro and a further 1.6m lorries used Eurotunnel in 2017.

Together, Dover and Eurotunnel carried 32.6m passengers in 2016, more than the UK’s third largest airport. The Port of Dover is fully integrated into a frictionless single market, with customs checks last carried out for UK-EU trade in 1992. It is estimated that there could be an extra 300 million declarations a year once outside the trade bloc and it will take time for industry to adjust. The freight vehicles currently only take seconds to clear the Port of Dover but if Brexit ends up creating regulatory and tariff barriers between the UK and the EU, it is predicted that there could be gridlock around the town and through to Maidstone and beyond. If increased waiting times persisted then perishable goods could be damaged and supply chains interrupted.There is also a potential impact on air quality of any increased traffic queues at border controls. The government says around four percent of non-EU imports are currently subject to customs checks at border entry points. This means that more than 300 a day could be stopped at the Port of Dover if they are checked at a similar rate 


Customs checks on imports from outside the common market can take between 5 minutes to 45 minutes per vehicle. Port officials have warned that increasing the average time it takes to clear customs by as little as two minutes could lead to 17-mile traffic jams 

Freight and vehicle fluidity is essential for the business models of Dover and Eurotunnel. The current transport infrastructure, which is insufficient to respond to changing border arrangements, puts the local and UK economy at risk. The estimated daily cost of the disruption caused by Operation Stack is £1.45m to Kent and Medway’s economy and £250m to the UK economy 


All foodstuffs NOAO [Not of Animal Origin] travelling into the EU must first enter the community through a DPE [Designated Point of Entry]. Products of Animal origin (POAO) from third countries must also enter the community through a Border Inspection Post (BIP). The Port of Dover and the Channel Tunnel are not BIP’s. Therefore, POAO can only travel through Dover and/or the Channel Tunnel if they are already in free circulation. This means they must have been presented and cleared at a BIP approved by the European Commission, before their arrival at Dover or the Channel Tunnel 
  
The quantity of POAO entering the UK through both sites is believed to be substantial. Neither port obtains manifests of the type, quantity or weight etc. of goods transiting them. Therefore,it is impossible to obtain accurate figures as to the scale of the potential foodstuffs that may require additional controls. However, we do know that approximately 10,000 lorries per day (in and out) use the Port of Dover and 6-7,000 lorries per day (in and out) use the Channel Tunnel.

What a mess!