Paul Goodman writes for Conservative Home. He is one of those committed Brexiteers for whom there is no limit to the price the nation must pay to get out of the EU. However, like most leavers he is happier if the cost falls on other people rather than him personally. He rightly concludes that the Chequers plan is dead and now says (HERE) that Theresa May has three strategic choices: remaining in the EU, going for an EFTA/EEA arrangement or a Canada style FTA like CETA. He then dismisses the first two as not what the British people voted for or want.
I can't remember the British people being asked if they wanted a Canada style FTA either but let's overlook that.
He confronts one of the big problems with CETA and that is the Irish backstop. This is his take:
"A daunting obstacle sprawls across it: the Northern Ireland backstop. But if – we repeat if – that barrier can be climbed, negotiated, ducked or swerved....."
He does not seem to realise it cannot be "climbed, negotiated, ducked or swerved" because this is a prerequisite to CETA. The EU will not start talks about CETA until the backstop is agreed. We either accept the border down the Irish sea or something like it, or we won't get CETA at all. And since the DUP are vehemently opposed to any differences or any barriers between them and us, it's hard to see how CETA is any more of a starter that EFTA/EEA or remaining in the EU.
The other, perhaps bigger problem he doesn't mention at all. Trade under CETA may be tariff free but it isn't frictionless as a visit to the Canadian government website for their exporters shows (HERE). An extract from the website (item 2.6 actually) says this:
All goods imported into the EU must be declared to the customs authorities of the appropriate country using the Single Administrative Document (SAD). The SAD is the common import declaration form for all EU countries and is usually completed by the importer or their agent.
Depending on the type of goods, additional documents must also be presented to customs authorities. These may include commercial invoices, transport documents (bills of lading), certificates of origin, import licences, and inspection certificates (such as health, veterinary or plant-health certificates). Information concerning these certificates is provided in Chapter 3: EU Sanitary and Phytosanitary Requirements.
Additional information may be found on the European Commission DG Trade website concerning EU import procedures and documents for customs clearance.
The SAD is a very complicated document with eight copies. If automotive imports are subject to it, the UK car industry would be run down within a few years and fresh food imports would cease overnight. Trade does not increase if you make it more difficult.
The fact is that every option has a downside.
And in a neat way it shows the inherent contradiction of Brexit. Leave the EU and all will be well, or so the Brexiteers told us. There were no downsides and only the sunny uplands rising gently as they opened up before the free men and women of Britain. Now we see that every situation has both upsides and downsides, give and take, pluses and minuses and so on. The other man's grass isn't greener it also has a lot of moss, ground elder and bare patches.
The EU is not perfect, but by leaving we are simply giving up one imperfect solution for another.
