Monday 17 September 2018

UNEMPLOYMENT - ONE OF BREXIT'S MANY ACHILLES HEELS

I have said before that Brexit could not have come at a worse time - for Brexiteers. The up to date unemployment figures for September were published last week HERE. They show the rate down to 4.0% or 1.36 million. These are excellent figures. When the referendum was held the rate was 4.9% and most forecasters expected the numbers to rise, but they haven't. However, we are now reaching what used to be called full employment - the irreducible rock bottom level which really just includes the people who are between jobs. It's hard to see it going much lower. And this is the problem for Brexiteers isn't it?

A few days ago I noted that Matthew Elliot,Vote Leave's chief executive, was quoted by the BBC in 2016 (HERE) saying:

"Vote Leave will make that case, that whilst the EU might be good for big multinationals, for smaller businesses it acts as a job destruction regulatory machine".

So much for destroying jobs it has helped to get employment to a post war high and unemployment to a 40 year low. There is no doubt economy has held up well, better than anyone predicted and I think this has surprised a lot of people, including many leavers and the leading Brexiteers, although they wouldn't admit it in public.

When the downturn comes and unemployment rises it is going to be mighty difficult, not to mention impossible, to argue that it is NOT Brexit which is the "job destruction" machine. In other words the reverse of what Matthew Elliot told Britain in 2016.