I see a lot of commentators in the press are once again talking about the possibility of the UK exiting the EU without a deal. This is not going to happen. It is a transparent negotiating ploy and nothing else. Never underestimate a politician's instinct for survival. May, or whoever succeeds her if she goes before we do, will never allow that to happen. The economic damage would be enormous, never mind what Jacob Rees-Mogg and his ERG band claim. No political party will want an albatross the size of Brexit hanging around them for the next half century.
This applies in spades to the Tories. They might have managed things if they had cleared the ground and prepared the electorate with a blood, toil, tears and sweat speech like Churchill in 1940. But they did the opposite. It was going to be downhill all the way, quick and easy. Even the hardest of hard Brexiteer needs to be careful that Brexit doesn't go disastrously wrong on March 30th next year otherwise their life's work will get a very bad name.
No, they can't afford a no deal exit and both the UK government and the EU know it.
So what we should look for is the point at which the humiliating climb down occurs. It cannot run past Christmas otherwise business will begin to trigger ever more extreme contingency plans. It obviously won't be before or during the party conference. And there will need to be decent interval afterwards. But time is short and the EU have said some sign of progress is needed by the October summit on the 18th if they're to agree an exceptional meeting of the EU council in November. My guess is that something will be agreed a day or two beforehand, say on the 15th or 16th. Not the details, they will have to wait until November.
So what we should look for is the point at which the humiliating climb down occurs. It cannot run past Christmas otherwise business will begin to trigger ever more extreme contingency plans. It obviously won't be before or during the party conference. And there will need to be decent interval afterwards. But time is short and the EU have said some sign of progress is needed by the October summit on the 18th if they're to agree an exceptional meeting of the EU council in November. My guess is that something will be agreed a day or two beforehand, say on the 15th or 16th. Not the details, they will have to wait until November.
The key moment will be the second week of October. The rhetoric may get a bit more strident but an agreement of sorts on the Withdrawal Treaty will be reached and we will get into the transition period. The non-binding political statement on the future trading relationship will not contain "a lot of detail" as Davis once said was essential (HERE) to prevent MPs voting it down. It will be very vague to cover up the lack of agreement on what it should look like.
It might be dressed up a bit to give the appearance that both sides climbed down but make no mistake, the EU won't have compromised for two reasons. Because they can't and have no need to anyway. Our weak position will be exposed just as it was in December last year when Theresa May had to cut short her meeting in Brussels to square the DUP. It will be another humiliation for the PM who doesn't seem to realise what a pathetic figure she now appears. All those steely eyed looks into the camera won't be able to disguise it.
The transition will be nowhere near long enough to negotiate our final relationship but that will also be fudged and nobody will raise the issue. It will be the elephant in the room.
And we can look forward to another 21 months of self flagellation before the next moment of truth in December 2020 when the EU will be able to wring out a few more concessions as we struggle to avoid the next cliff edge. Brexit begins to resemble less of a roller coaster and more of a drunken ramble along the south downs near Beachy head.
It might be dressed up a bit to give the appearance that both sides climbed down but make no mistake, the EU won't have compromised for two reasons. Because they can't and have no need to anyway. Our weak position will be exposed just as it was in December last year when Theresa May had to cut short her meeting in Brussels to square the DUP. It will be another humiliation for the PM who doesn't seem to realise what a pathetic figure she now appears. All those steely eyed looks into the camera won't be able to disguise it.
The transition will be nowhere near long enough to negotiate our final relationship but that will also be fudged and nobody will raise the issue. It will be the elephant in the room.
And we can look forward to another 21 months of self flagellation before the next moment of truth in December 2020 when the EU will be able to wring out a few more concessions as we struggle to avoid the next cliff edge. Brexit begins to resemble less of a roller coaster and more of a drunken ramble along the south downs near Beachy head.
