Thursday, 18 October 2018

A ROBOTIC RESPONSE

Reuters have a report about industrial robotics in the UK (HERE) although there is a bit of spin in it from the Bank of England. The basic data apparently comes from the International Federation of Robotics (IFR) 2018 report, the executive summary of which you can read HERE. Reuters seem to have used a blog post by the BoE to show that sales of robots is now rising quickly in the UK as the labour market tightens and manufacturers are forced to invest in automation. On the surface it looks promising for a nation that is shortly to relaunch itself on the global market. But dig a little under the surface and it is not quite what it seems. In fact it's grim.

Page 23 of the IFR executive summary has table 4.1 and this gives a breakdown of the multi-purpose industrial robots installed by country and by year. So, in the 4 year period covering 2015 - 2018 the figures for the larger European nations are:

Germany 82,484
Italy 27,222
France 16,477
Spain 16,585

Where were we?  Well, I'll tell you in a minute. The Reuters report says this:

"The International Federation of Robotics (IFR) says British factories are less likely to use industrial robots than any other leading economy and even some countries in eastern Europe.

"Bank of England (BoE) officials and industry experts say they may finally be catching up.

“Firms are increasingly investing in automation, substituting capital for labor, as workers become more scarce and costly,” central bank officials Will Holman and Tim Pike wrote in July on a BoE economic research blog".

I can reveal that the UK's total was 7,332 over the four years. Shockingly, we installed less than half the number of either France or Spain, about a quarter of Italy's figure and less than 10% of Germany's. We are installing about 2000 robots per year compared with 20,000 for Germany. The Bank of England may think we're catching up but it's hard to see how.

Not only are we lagging behind in automation this year, we have lagged behind every year and are expected to lag behind in the future. And bear in mind Germany is only the fifth biggest robot market in the world behind China, Japan, Korea and the USA.

In 2016 alone, not an exceptional year by the way, China installed 97,3300 units, Korea 41,400, Japan 38,600, USA 31,400 and Germany 20,039.  The UK managed a pitiful 1,787. 

When we finally begin to sign new trade deals expect trade to be mainly one way as UK shoppers do what they have always done and choose the most competitive and the highest quality products made overseas, not this time by cheap labour - but by even cheaper robots.

If we begin now we might catch up by the 22nd century.