Monday 8 October 2018

HOLD THE OPTIMISM - NO DEAL STILL POSSIBLE

After the recent optimism the PM's spokesman (HERE) is cautioning against the hopeful notes being sounded at the weekend. He says, "the EU still needs to move" but if I were him I wouldn't want to rely on that. The EU haven't moved at all for eighteen months so the chances of them doing so now is about the same as a snowball's chance in hell. There is a rising clamour in the UK against leaving without a deal and it is more than loud enough to reach Brussels. 


Asa Bennett in The Telegraph (HERE) has no sense of irony at all  He says Theresa May isn't letting EU leaders "hurry her into a quick and dirty deal". You don't say? We are teetering on the edge of catastrophe and the PM is having a Murray mint moment. Having wasted fifteen of the 24 months, and now upon reaching the eleventh hour she won't be hurried. I assume this is her still threatening no deal is better than a bad deal. The bloody difficult woman is being dragged towards the deal that has been on offer for nearly a year.

In another piece (HERE) in The Telegraph, Jack Maidment says, "Downing Street has poured cold water on suggestions a Brexit deal is close as it emerged the Government is set to play hard ball with the EU to secure a “precise” agreement on Britain’s future relationship with the bloc".  Really?  We are playing hard ball?

I assume this is all for the domestic audience to show how "tough" the PM has been with those stubborn Europeans. When the deal is announced and the scale of the climb down is apparent for all to see, she will claim it's a very good deal. As for a "precise" agreement being demanded, this must have been inserted for the comedy value. Nobody is more adept than Theresa May at making fudge.

However, as usual, once the good news leaked out at the weekend and captured the headlines, we start to get the bad news following it in an orderly fashion. The Irish News website (HERE) claims that NI will be excluded from future trade deals. The DUP will never wear this. The next thing will be the Common Commercial Policy.

Brexiteers were adamant that Chequers went too far but BoJo, after reluctantly saying he would accept the transition period of 21 months "and not a second more" is now apparently happy to accept an indefinite period inside the customs union. Ot is he?  We shall see.

Finally, this afternoon Reuters (HERE) portray it as a game of chicken as each side dares the other not to make a move.  Reuters say:

"EU officials and diplomats say the bloc will not put forward its proposal for future trade before reaching an agreement with Britain on an emergency fix that would keep the Irish border open - preserving a key aspect of a 1998 peace treaty that ended decades of sectarian bloodshed - regardless of how Brexit goes.

“Joint priority: ensuring the orderly withdrawal of the United Kingdom to protect the rights of citizens, investments and geographic indication (locally made products protected by EU law),” chief EU Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier said on Monday after meeting Italian prime minister.

“This is the basis of trust for an ambitious future economic and strategic partnership (with Britain).”

But Britain wants Brussels to first propose its vision of a future trade relationship. “There remain big issues to work through,” May’s spokesman said.

The next few hours will tell who is the chicken. Clue: Not Brussels.