Yesterday's cabinet meeting lasted more than three hours and Brexit apparently was the main topic. Channel 4's Gary Gibbon reported there was quite a heated discussion about what happens at the end of the 21 month transition period. The PM talked about remaining in a UK wide customs arrangement or extending the transition period but apparently there was quite a bit of criticism of both ideas, even from former remainers like Jeremy Hunt. The Attorney General, Geoffrey Cox, was prominent among the critics we are told, talking about being in the first circle of Hell, known as limbo.
But being in limbo is surely preferable to listening to another ticking time bomb.
Everyone who knows anything about trade deals says 21 months is nowhere near enough. This is the bottom line. I read somewhere that detailed talks won't actually begin until next Autumn. It will take that long to get the EU27 to agree another negotiating mandate. Ratification will take perhaps another year since, as a mixed agreement, national and regional parliaments must approve it.
Sam Coates, a reporter at The Times, tweeted last night:
EXCLUSIVE— Sam Coates Times (@SamCoatesTimes) October 23, 2018
** Times sees cabinet papers revealing next stage of brexit Plan
** Brexit transition WILL last for years under TM’s Plan officials say. They warn of “long-running” multi-year transition
** Plan A WILL involve NI in separate VAT area. Officials admit “uncomfortable”. https://t.co/uyJkKoocB2
Unless there is a "long running" multi-year transition, whoever is doing the negotiating (it won't be Mrs May that's for sure) will face another cliff edge as December 2020 approaches and will once again be in a weak position. What is her opponents' plan? Do they beg for an extension? Or leave anyway under WTO rules for a few months or a year or two? It cannot work. Think about it.
I think it was perhaps this news that sparked the heated discussion.
Article 50 was drafted to put all the power into the hands of the EU. The two year timetable was their ultimate weapon. Those who are against an extension are voluntarily putting themselves into exactly the same position again.
And during the transition period, as negotiations continue in detail, the UK will either have to make preparations for no deal so that we can, if necessary, leave at the end of December on WTO terms or face another cliff edge totally unprepared. Either way, business will have another 21 months of uncertainty.
The Irish Times cover the cabinet meeting (HERE) with the stunning news that:
"Britain is drawing up plans to charter ships to bring in emergency food and medicines in the event of a “no-deal” Brexit next March, in a move greeted with disbelief at a stormy meeting of Theresa May’s cabinet on Tuesday.
"The cabinet was told that the heavily used Dover-Calais route could quickly become blocked by new customs controls on the French side, forcing Britain to seek alternative ways of bringing in “critical supplies”.
"The warnings about the consequences of a disorderly British exit from the EU came at a cabinet meeting which saw ministers divided into two camps over how to unlock a deal in Brussels. One witness said there was 'an almighty row'".
According to the FT this morning this news was "greeted with disbelief". Imagine that. The cabinet of all people must surely have been aware of the potential for chaos for months, but apparently not. It might just be the moment when some of them realised the so-called scaremongering was actually a statement of the obvious.
The withdrawal agreement is apparently 95% complete and "substantial progress" has been made on the future trade deal but the cabinet discussion included an "almighty row". How will it ever stick?
The withdrawal agreement is apparently 95% complete and "substantial progress" has been made on the future trade deal but the cabinet discussion included an "almighty row". How will it ever stick?
Meanwhile, Reuters are speculating that we may actually be close to a deal (HERE), with the EU offering to accept a UK wide customs "arrangement" which will be the customs union in all but name to try and help Mrs May pull the wool over Brexiteers eyes. I assume this might also have upset some ministers at the meeting. What it doesn't explain is the regulatory hurdles. Customs is for the collection of tariffs and this is only part of the answer, checking goods are in compliance with EU regulations is the main issue. The PM has proposed a "common rule book" for goods but the EU rejected it, so what is going to be in the deal we do not yet know.
We are in a position where nobody knows anything for sure. We don't know if May will survive, if half the cabinet might quit suddenly en masse, if a general election will be called, if we will get a deal or leave without one, if parliament will get a meaningful vote or not or whether the deal will get through or not. What an epic mess.
