Saturday 20 October 2018

THE EU IS EUROPE

I can't remember how many times we've been told leaving the EU doesn't mean we're leaving Europe. From a geographical point of view this might be true and even obvious but it seems to be predicated on the EU and Europe being different things. I'm not sure they are.  The UN (HERE) list 44 countries as being part of the continent of Europe. For the sake of my argument I've added Iceland and Turkey to make 46 in all.

The EU comprises 28 nations, plus others which are either in the EEA or are candidate countries to join the EU. Others have a lot of bilateral agreements (Switzerland) or are in a customs union (Turkey, San Marino, Andorra, Monaco) or have an Association Agreement (Ukraine). The full list including candidates who are transitioning at the moment, plus potential future candidates is HERE.

If I compare the two lists I see only the following countries have NO connection directly or indirectly with the EU and these are:

Russia
Belarus
Moldova
The Holy See

See the summary HERE

Clearly Russia is never going to join the EU and The Holy See is part of Italy, so we can discount those countries anyway. Moldova has aspirations to join the EU eventually but Belarus doesn't (at the moment).

In other words the EU and Europe are virtually interchangeable. Apart from Russia and Belarus, we will be the only European country trading on WTO terms or via a FTA. 

The EU, for all its faults, is responsible for European wide trade, environment and social policy, all things which are bound to impact us whether we are a member or not. Soon the EU will probably have a defence strategy and budget and even an army. The UK will be orbiting a giant bloc of 40+ countries trying to follow our own regulations and trade but being forced by the sheer gravitational attraction to comply with more or less everything.

The Canada style FTA, with all the pluses you want, will lock us in. The EU are not going to allow the UK to have the best of both worlds. We will have to choose. Diverge and deregulate but face trade barriers, or stay close, match the EU regulation for regulation and only lose a little trade.

Eventually, this will have to be explained - somebody will finally have to take responsibility and own Brexit. I don't think that will be Mrs May.