David Davis has written to Tory MPs warning the party (actually the warning is aimed at Theresa May but he doesn't say so) that they face "dire electoral consequences" if they continue with the Chequers plan (HERE). He says it won't deliver any of the benefits of Brexit. We keep hearing about these mysterious "benefits" or sometimes "opportunities" of Brexit. Does anybody know what they actually are? All we get is a lot of nebulous soundbites about trade deals or sovereignty. Meanwhile, all serious economist, the CBI, the BCC, the EEF, the Food and Drink Federation, the SMMT and just about everybody else, produces much solid evidence that there are no benefits to be had from Brexit only self harm.
But let's ignore that for a moment. Davis thinks the electorate will punish the party if they don't deliver a Brexit that provides these so-called benefits, the ones that barely any economists or trade bodies can actually see or define in practical terms. The Tory party's Brexit problem is far bigger than Davis realises. The electoral consequences of not delivering Brexit are almost certainly less than the consequences of delivering it. In other words they can't win.
Even if there are benefits that the majority of mainstream economists for some reason cannot see, the chances of them materialising by 2022 is less than zero.
We may be out of the EU by 2022 (although personally I wouldn't even bet on that) but the economy will definitely take a hit and, for the first time in history, having been brought about by a deliberate policy initiative of the governing party. They may say they're carrying out the "will of the people" but since the electorate were told there wouldn't be any downturn, just a bump in the road, that excuse will never carry much weight.
The Tories are indeed on the Titanic, but this time there are two icebergs in sight. One is marked Brexit and the other marked no Brexit. The captain is waivering between one or the other but the ship is absolutely certain to collide with an iceberg in 2022. We just don't know which yet.
