Sunday 18 November 2018

MAY IS SAVING BREXITEERS FROM THEMSELVES

Negotiations in Brussels on the withdrawal agreement have finished - but are continuing in London. Cabinet Brexiteers are said to be applying a bit of pressure to try and force Theresa May to reopen talks (HERE). They are very unhappy with the joint decision making process that allows the EU to block the UK from exiting the Irish border backstop arrangement. This is the issue that has taken almost a year to resolve and now a solution has been agreed at a technical level, they want to go back and start again! These are cabinet ministers but appear more like petulant children.  I'll resist the temptation to say:  you lost, get over it.

The Mail article claims  Michael Gove, the Environment Secretary, is leading the charge along with four other cabinet members (Leadsom, Mordant, Fox and Grayling), who are set to demand that Prime Minister Theresa May renegotiates the Brexit deal. They are apparently threatening to resign en masse in a fortnight unless they get their way. I don't suppose for a minute they will go so far - the PM isn't that lucky - and she will be stuck with the five useless amigos for a bit longer.

If Grayling, Mordaunt and Ledsome do resign, the average IQ of the cabinet may actually get into positive territory. The group apparently believes it is not too late for Mrs May to go back to Brussels and demand a unilateral exit mechanism (demand, mark you!).

I imagine Barnier would rather stick red hot needles through his eyeballs than re-open the withdrawal negotiations, especially regarding the very topic they have spent the best part of twelve months trying to resolve. If the EU gave the slightest hint of being willing to make more concessions, there would be a queue of people outside his office tomorrow morning. 

Brexit has more back seat drivers than you can begin to imagine. They all knew what they were voting for - and it wasn't what May has just negotiated, it was, ....err something else, something nobody can quite articulate. They know exactly what it isn't but not what it is. They seem to think they'll know it when they see it.

Every Brexiteer thinks it's a bad deal. The only thing they can't agree on is what a good deal looks like.The EU's chief negotiator is 67 and I'm not sure he has enough years left to keep serving up variations until everybody who voted to leave is happy.

The past is gone, the deal is the deal. Brussels is not going to reopen discussions but a point has been made that the Brexiteers would do well to heed for the future. David Davis (and plenty of others), went into the talks insisting, "We are not going into this negotiation as supplicants; we are going as equal partners.” (HERE)

If nothing else, the deal on the table shows we are supplicants. The EU began with a clear idea of what they wanted from the WA and stuck firmly to the negotiating mandate. We didn't "hold all the cards"  as Gove once told us, the EU held them. All the wishful thinking came up against reality. The two year time limit and the timetable it enforced, dictated that Mrs May had to get a deal by the end of November - and the EU knew that all they had to do was wait. When the PM looked at what crashing out without a deal meant for this country, it was never in doubt.


If the deal ever gets implemented (a very big IF, given the mood in parliament) exactly the same thing will happen as December 2020 approaches. The ONLY way we could avoid it and give ourselves more leverage, is to spend a lot of money on infrastructure and planning to make leaving the transition period without an agreement remotely possible. But if we were to take such action, business and industry would see the cliff edge being constructed before their eyes and the stream of companies setting up in Europe would become a flood. It's another conundrum for the cabinet to ponder.

The alternative is realism. But it is still in very short supply in this country. This very morning Raab is being quoted (HERE) criticising what he calls the government's "lack of political will and resolve" and says the UK should not allow itself to be "bullied", and must be prepared to walk away from negotiations if necessary. When will the penny drop?

The PM has saved the Brexiteers from themselves but even now they don't appreciate it.