Wednesday 21 November 2018

WE ARE GETTING CLOSER AND CLOSER - TO MEMBERSHIP

Theresa May is off to Brussels for a meeting with Jean Claude Juncker today amid some suggestions it's a bit of choreography to make it look as if her deal has been secured after a serious row. Spain is said to be unhappy about Gibraltar for example (HERE). She is trying to make it all look tough as she works to put the finishing touches to the final and expanded version of the political declaration about the future relationship.  However. I am not sure it's going to help the prime minister. 

If Brexiteers are unhappy with the Withdrawal Agreement and the draft outline of the future relationship at present, it looks like they will be even more unhappy with the expanded version being negotiated in Brussels. BuzzFeed (HERE) are reporting:

"Talks with Brussels were ongoing on Tuesday, with one source telling BuzzFeed News the UK is still pushing for a commitment to “frictionless trade” to be included in the political declaration".

It would be a surprise to me if the EU actually agreed to "frictionless trade" unless there is also a commitment to follow single market rules and the Union Customs Code and remain in the customs union. We are still in cake and eat it mode it seems.

But the very fact Britain is even pushing for frictionless trade should set off alarm bells for Brexiteers. It is only membership of the single market and the customs union that allows frictionless trade. If it was possible otherwise, the whole raison d'ĂȘtre of the EU would disappear. It shows the direction of travel of the government and how vital EU trade is for the UK. We are going to end up with a relationship as close as we can get, short of membership and freedom of movement. The weakness of our negotiating position must be obvious to everyone.

And in typical Theresa May fashion we may not even hit the deadline (HERE) of having everything ready for the summit on Sunday. The cabinet is worried the declaration won't be ready to be agreed after they proposed last minute changes with what is described as "bolder language".

David Davis, writing on the Conservative website (HERE), is still attempting to undo the already settled Withdrawal Agreement while May is in Brussels finalising the expanded political declaration. Rather than caretaker leader he looks like yesterday's man. He says: 

"But this is a time for calm heads. The crucial point is there is still time to save Brexit, still time to take control and still time to offer the British people a brighter future. This is the moment of truth. We can reject the proposed agreement and move on. We still have time because the key date in the calendar is 21st January, 2019. Only then does the Government need to make a statement within five days on what the United Kingdom plans to do, according to the European Union (Withdrawal) Act of 2018".

Move on! Even now he doesn't get it. The Canada FTA is predicated on having a Withdrawal Agreement, the one which he wants to reject! Where is the realism? He talks about spending "countless hours negotiating" with EU counterparts but actually he has been roundly criticised for spending barely any time in Brussels.

And he goes rambling on in fantasyland: 

"As we leave the EU, our geography remains fixed. We remain an island maritime nation, outward-facing and trading across the globe. British goods and services are recognised as the best in the world, and are sought after by global customers. This cannot and will not change".

British goods are "recognised as the best in the world". Really? Why do we have such a huge trade deficit in goods? Presumably, this is British consumers selflessly rejecting the best goods and buying all that cheap tacky stuff from Germany, Korea and China?