Saturday, 8 December 2018

ALLISTER HEATH

I think we are all now very well aware of the dishonesty and lies used to win the referendum campaign and I think we know that it is still going on, perhaps not in the £350 million or Turkish immigrant fashion, but in much more subtle ways. I want to pick out a particularly egregious example from The Telegraph but it certainly isn't isolated, this is going on every day of the week.

OK we know the Telegraph is pro-Brexit but what they have done is surely beyond the pale even for them.

An article written by Allister Heath (read it HERE) has the title : Remainers think they can cancel Brexit, but it can only be delayed - and the rather apocalyptic sub title: The looming MPs’ coup against Article 50 will unleash unstoppable political realignment.

It included a graphic suggesting public opinion is 'largely' unchanged. The 'largely' is significant. Here it is:

I want you to note a few things. Firstly, they attribute the data to YouGov, which is only partly true and very selective. 

Secondly, the top line of the graph is genuinely taken directly from the WhatUKthinks series asking if the UK was right or wrong to vote to leave the EU, but note they have only shown the plot for RIGHT which shows a slow decline and reached an all time low of 38% this week. The plot for WRONG showing a steady rise to an all-time high of 49% is not shown at all.


When the graphic title says opinion is largely unchanged, they might more accurately have said opinion shows a huge swings against Brexit. Assuming the figures were reflected in a new opinion poll, it would be 54 - 46% for staying in the EU, more that reversing the 2016 result. But they say it's 'largely unchanged'.

Thirdly, they compare the plot for RIGHT with another graph entirely and following something totally different. This is public opinion on attitude towards the government's handling of the negotiations.  Both plots are along the same timeline.

The slow, solid and consistent swing towards remain is ignored. The Telegraph narrative is that if the negotiations had been done properly public opinion would not have been the 'largely unchanged' but presumably we would all have been wildly in favour of Brexit.  The chart appears to show the public are still convinced Brexit is RIGHT despite the government's cack-handed negotiations and dog's breakfast deal.

This assumes there is a Brexit that works for everyone. There is not. The past two years shows even the Brexiteers cannot agree among themselves what it is they want, let alone a wider majority of the public. I have mentioned more than once that in my opinion there is no Brexit that a majority can agree on, no matter which government is in office or how well they negotiate.


Incidentally, Allister Heath (his parents or the registrar must have had spelling problems) is one of those who still think Brexit is simple but the civil service is blocking it. His article says: 

"Both sides have been terrifyingly naïve. Brexiteers thought they understood the rules: you win the referendum, the government leaves the EU. They didn’t realize the game was rigged.

"The anthropological rituals and language of democracy still exist, and have even been extended in recent years, but they are now largely a charade to camouflage a massive power grab by the bureaucracy.

"At some point 10 or 20 years ago, perhaps during the heyday of the New Labour Quangocracy, the British establishment underwent a profound shift. It now sees itself as above the rest, as a cadre of uber-meritocratic technocrat or lawyer-kings who, for the general good, need to take all the real decisions and to socially engineer the country. They are not the public’s servants; they serve a greater purpose".

That's it. You vote to leave and the government leaves the EU. Give me a wet Tuesday afternoon when I've nothing better to do, a telephone and a few sheets of paper and envelopes, and I would have it all done in time for tea. I's just a doddle isn't it?  Isn't it?