We are starting to look like a banana monarchy. The weekend was full of speculation about the coming vote on Tuesday with some commentators suggesting it will be postponed until after the EU summit on Thursday and Friday. No 10 and the new (3rd) Brexit Secretary are still adamant that it will go ahead as planned - although in these febrile times who knows what is going to happen. There are also murmurings that May and the EU could try to 'tweak' the backstop wording to make it more acceptable.
The Guardian HERE
have several people close to the action saying Mrs May will come under
intense pressure to pull the vote and I think it is more likely than
not. She is adept at avoiding the crunch and will probably decide discretion
is the better part of valour. She might have another go in Brussels but
as the new Brexit Secretary said:
"Speaking on the BBC’s Andrew Marr show, Steve Barclay, insisted the vote would happen on Tuesday and there would be no more negotiations with Brussels.
“The risk for those who say simply go back and ask again … is that isn’t necessarily a one-way street,” he said. “The French, the Spanish and others will turn round, if we seek to reopen the negotiation, and ask for more.”
"Speaking on the BBC’s Andrew Marr show, Steve Barclay, insisted the vote would happen on Tuesday and there would be no more negotiations with Brussels.
“The risk for those who say simply go back and ask again … is that isn’t necessarily a one-way street,” he said. “The French, the Spanish and others will turn round, if we seek to reopen the negotiation, and ask for more.”
Everybody seems to have forgotten the Withdrawal Agreement and are looking beyond it to what follows the defeat. It looks like an utter shambles but has in fact been eighteen months in the planning.
The Washington Post (HERE) says:
"Europeans have gone slackjawed at London’s political chaos, with normally demure diplomats comparing the process there to a slow-motion car wreck. They say they can offer little other than cosmetic tweaks that might help May save face with her own Conservative Party. And they have begun to accelerate their emergency planning to prepare safety nets that could avoid some of the humanitarian and economic chaos that might happen if Britain crashes out of the European Union on its deadline of March 29, with no other plan in place.
It’s taken many people time to understand that things really are as bad as they are in the U.K.,” said Lotta Nymann-Lindegren, a former Finnish diplomat who focused on Brexit issues and now works at the Miltton consultancy. “It’s been a real eye-opener that an issue like this can cause such domestic political chaos.”
The Washington Post (HERE) says:
"Europeans have gone slackjawed at London’s political chaos, with normally demure diplomats comparing the process there to a slow-motion car wreck. They say they can offer little other than cosmetic tweaks that might help May save face with her own Conservative Party. And they have begun to accelerate their emergency planning to prepare safety nets that could avoid some of the humanitarian and economic chaos that might happen if Britain crashes out of the European Union on its deadline of March 29, with no other plan in place.
It’s taken many people time to understand that things really are as bad as they are in the U.K.,” said Lotta Nymann-Lindegren, a former Finnish diplomat who focused on Brexit issues and now works at the Miltton consultancy. “It’s been a real eye-opener that an issue like this can cause such domestic political chaos.”
Organisers of the Brexit Betrayal march in London yesterday could only manage about 5,000 protesters (HERE) and they were outnumbered 3:1 by opposition anti-Tommy Robinson protesters. The Brexit Betrayal mob looked quite a bunch of shaven-headed extremists.
"Leon, 47, who stood at the march draped in the flag of Saint George, said that he had come to protest to march in opposition to Theresa May’s Brexit deal and to stop “infiltration” of UK by Muslims.
"They're calling for another referendum, a People's Vote, and it isn't democracy," he said. "It seems like they're going to keep doing the same as they did in Ireland, where we keep getting referendum after referendum until they get the right answer. But a lot of the UK public aren't having it."
Leon strikes me as a bit of a confused nutter. Firstly, Brexiteers are keen to stop EU immigration but want to see equal treatment from the rest of the world. He may actually see an increase in Muslim immigrants. And resisting a second referendum because the 'public aren't having it' seems like an oxymoron and a bit daft to me. A second referendum means the public are having it! All they need to do is confirm their choice or reject the deal.
The former work and pensions secretary Iain Duncan Smith warned darkly (HERE) that the UK could see civil unrest if a government defeat led to a softening of Brexit or to another referendum, drawing comparisons with the gillets jaunes(yellow jacket) protests in France.
The Independent HERE claim the Brexit Betrayal protest attracted not much more than 2,000 people. It looks like a bit of pro-Brexit lethargy has set in. Richard Tice said a new referendum would be 'brutal' but if this is the best they can do, the brutality might be all one way. Given that the leave vote was largely driven by the elderly and hard-of-thinking perhaps we shouldn't be surprised.
If May manages to get some tweaks on the backstop there is just a chance the deal will get through but in my opinion opposition to it runs a bit deeper. There are many Brexiteers who have serious objections about following EU rules without influence and the role of the ECJ and in return for the 'tweaks' the UK fishing industry may have to be scuttled and Gibraltar effectively handed over to the Spanish.
Another week, another Brexit shambles.
