Katya Adler is the BBC's Europe editor and an item by her on the BBC website (HERE) gives a clue perhaps into what is coming on Brexit. She makes it clear not all EU governments are keen on keeping the UK in the union. And there is an implicit recognition that we are in a weak position, negotiating with a vastly stronger economic partner.
The EU simply do not believe the rhetoric about the UK leaving without a deal. She says Brussels regards the idea as a paper tiger and I agree. They are not going to blink and we are not going to leave without a deal. Let us take that as read.
So, as the clock ticks down to March 29th, we will want to avoid a chaotic no deal exit and so need either to agree the deal on the table or settle on something else. Since the former looks quite impossible we must look to the something else.
Whatever that something else is it cannot include a transition period since this is dependent on agreeing the deal, so count the option of entering a transition period where things carry on as before, as closed.
This leaves two further options. One is to ask for an extension to the Article 50 period but as Katya Adler makes clear this needs unanimous agreement of the EU27 and it is by no means certain that France or Spain would agree, and certainly not without conditions. One condition might be that we hold another referendum with the deal or no Brexit as the choice. There might be other quite unpalatable caveats too.
The only other option in which the British government enjoys complete freedom of action, would be to withdraw the Article 50 notification unilaterally and without a referendum. The ECJ was clear in that case we would also keep all the existing benefits. This would be political dynamite but I am not sure it is any more explosive than being complicit in food and medicine shortages and the total shutdown and future relocation of the entire British car industry.
No government would undertake either action lightly and the PM would probably not survive in any event.
If we get close to the cliff edge, is it easier to explain to the population that the government is going to press on and take the whole nation with it into the chaos that would ensue, or to stamp on the brakes and revoke Article 50? Much will depend on how industry and commerce react as March 29th approaches. If enough voters begin to see the impending disaster after removing the rose-tinted Brexiteer spectacles, we may yet stop Brexit but it will not be pleasant.
If we do leave and have to reapply for membership we will almost certainly have to agree to give up the rebate, join the Euro and become part of the Schengen freedom of movement area. It will be decision time for parliament. To keep what we have or sacrifice it in the hope of something better in 50 years time?
Hang on to your hats.
