Tuesday 8 January 2019

BREXIT AS REVOLUTION

Rafael Behr wrote in The Guardian (HERE) a few days ago comparing Brexit to the American war of independence in the eighteenth century. This was sparked by a visit he made to see Hamilton, a musical about the life of Alexander Hamilton, one of the founding fathers of the USA.  Behr always writes well on Brexit, it's a good read.
 
To many Brexiteers this revolution narrative is not an unreasonable comparison and it continues the analogy of Sir Ivan Rogers in his speech in Cambridge (HERE). They genuinely believe we are 'ruled' and even 'oppressed' by Brussels and Brexit is somehow throwing off the yoke. Behr apparently has first hand experience:

"At a public event recently I heard the young leader of a pro-leave organisation tell an elderly Indian man that her experience of growing up in Britain, as “a colony of Europe”, was analogous to his childhood under the Raj".

He writes:

"The show takes liberties with the historical record but gets away with it because it is a work of creative genius. If only the same could be said of Brexit, which tells a mutilated version of a nation’s past without the redeeming features of witty rhyme and memorable melody. The comparison is preposterous but also weirdly compelling. After all, many Brexiteers truly see themselves leading an emancipation from tyranny".

There is a lot of truth in what Behr says. Brexiteers see themselves as freeing us from the EU as if it was the Soviet Union, indeed many refer to Brussels as the EUSSR. That this is ridiculous should have been obvious from the very beginning but for a lot of leavers it isn't.

"While past revolutions were driven by ideas, Brexit is strangely uninterested in them. To the likes of Johnson and Farage, ideas are a bit foreign. But Britain will not get through 2019 without some idea of what to do next. A bubble inflated by decades of pomp, ignorance and vanity will burst. The correction can come in one of two ways. The UK will not leave the EU, having collectively decided that the task cannot safely be done. Or it will leave the EU, and discover that none of the things that were promised from Brexit can be achieved without help from Europe. Both routes are painful in different ways. Either way, I don’t think future generations will be idolising the authors of our present dilemma". 

I think Behr is right. The choice is to remain having decided it is too risky or difficult, or to leave and realise very quickly that we can't achieve anything without European help but outside the bloc, we will have no vote, no voice and no influence. The inflated expectations of Brexit will be unattainable.

Eventually, we will have to rejoin on worse terms and having lost hundreds of billions of pounds of investments, GDP growth and tax revenues.