The Evening Standard is reporting that an anonymous cabinet minister is suggesting Brexit will have to be delayed beyond March 29th because essential legislation will not be ready in time (HERE). This sounds right to me as I wrote a few days ago HERE. It is inevitable as the prime minister must already know.
It will be fascinating to see how the government gets around this. Firstly, as many Brexiteers constantly remind us, the exit date is set out in legislation and it will take an act of parliament to stop it. I would love to be a fly on the wall of the division lobbies to see IDS, Redwood, Jenkyns, Cash and Co as they trip through, whichever lobby they use. Their faces would be a picture.
More importantly, unless Article 50 is revoked unilaterally, to get an extension to the Article 50 period, the EU are going to have to agree to the delay and may well put conditions on it. I wonder what they will be? Will May be forced to do it unilaterally anyway?
The EU need to tread carefully. Being seen to force or demand another vote is nitro-glycerine in the Brexit debate but I suspect this is what will happen. They will need mighty diplomatic skills to get another vote and not appear to have done so, to maintain deniability.
As we approach the crucial meaningful vote in parliament, warnings about the consequences of leaving without a deal are coming thick and fast. The food industry trade body issued one (HERE), following on from the Society of Motor Traders and Manufacturers (HERE) before Christmas. The East Anglian pig sector would be threatened (HERE) according to some. And the British Plastics Federation put in their own plea (HERE) to avoid a no deal outcome.
The NI Secretary, Karen Bradley, says no deal threatens the union itself (HERE).
I put these links in to show how almost every sector of the economy is desperately worried that we will end up without a deal. Although intended to influence MPs (I assume) the warnings must eventually begin cutting through to the man in the street - especially the man (or woman) who voted to leave. You would have to believe they are ALL wrong to avoid the conclusion that no deal is simply out of the question.
The Express claim the PM is set to lose by 228 votes (HERE) which would make it the biggest defeat any government has ever suffered and on a flagship policy. It would be farcical. The PM would have spent eighteen months negotiating something that she has not the slightest hope of getting through parliament. I suspect it is the global humiliation she fears the most.
If this does happen all bets are off. She would probably have to resign leaving the country not only in unchartered territory, as she has said, but badly holed and without a compass.
