Thursday 17 January 2019

LOOKING FOR WHAT BREXIT REALLY MEANS

The PM survived the no confidence vote by 325 to 306 yesterday evening although had there been a secret ballot and no political consequences she would have lost by 631 to 0. There are a lot of hypocrites, tribal party MPs, greasy pole climbers and recipients of ministerial or government salaries. No wonder they are held in such low regard. She is probably being allowed to survive as a temporary human shield.

In a recent poll by YouGov of 25,537 people, with fieldwork carried out between 21st December and 4th January, one of the questions asked (HERE page 7) was whether people agreed or not with this statement:

The process of leaving the EU so far has been a mess.

On this issue there can be no doubt the entire process from the UK side is the sole responsibility of Theresa May. 

A stunning 86% of those asked agreed with the statement and just 6% disagreed while 8% didn't know. One might ask where the 14% have been living for the last two years and whether or not they are receiving any treatment. After last Tuesday's historic defeat I would think the figure must now be well over 90% with only a few anarchists and imbeciles who think it's going well.

Against this background the Tory party is apparently asking us to believe 100% of their MPs have confidence in her. In the debate most of them appeared either to give credit for government achievements between 2010 and 2015, before she became leader, or express fear about a Corbyn administration. I didn't hear anyone praising her achievements. Although it's not difficult to see why, there haven't been any.

Even Theresa May didn't claim she was the best person to negotiate Brexit, presumably because she didn't want to hear the laughter across Europe, all she did say was that Corbyn would be worse. Hardly a ringing endorsement and I'm not even sure it's true. He at least seems to be more realistic and doesn't have a bunch of seriously disturbed, wild eyed back benchers holding a gun to his head.

I used to think she did a reasonable job at the Home Office but now I think she is the most useless prime minister in our history.

She has offered to reach out to parliamentarians and party leaders (HERE) to look at options which might find a majority in the House and be negotiable with the EU. On the surface this might look generous but there are just 71 days of the 730 days go and she invited leaders to talks last night -  giving them two or three hours to consult with colleagues. Having wasted 90% of the Article 50 period on a deal that two thirds of the House don't like she is finally, at the last minute rushing round trying to find out what Brexit really means.

The more cynical among us, including Dr Simon Usherwood at UK in a Changing Europe (HERE), suspect it is simply another ruse to run out of time so the only option left with days to go is her deal or crashing out without one. It might be more brinkmanship. She is far too stubborn to listen or change. Laura Kuenssberg quotes an anonymous cabinet minister who says (HERE) she is as inflexible as a dodo.

There is perhaps eventually now the possibility of a move to a softer Brexit where we stay in the customs union and the single market. The EU would accept this and a majority in parliament might be in favour. Only the ERG would be upset and the Tory party might risk a split.

But a Tory split is I think inevitable as well as desirable and a price worth paying to end the nightmare. May should think more about the nation and less about party management.