Not long to wait now. By the end of the day we will have a clearer view of the wreckage left after May's deal is expected to crash and burn spectacularly in the Commons this evening. We are entering the end of the beginning game. Today's Westminster fireworks will rival those on new year's eve but with serious consequences for the nation.
We are flirting with disaster and it seems ever more urgent warnings from business and business groups have no effect whatever on the Brexiteer MPs. To give us a clue why this is so, look no further than UK in a Changing Europe where they have carried out a survey of MPs to find out what they think will happen on Brexit.
You can see their report HERE. The fascinating thing for me is that many members of parliament simply don't accept the risks that no deal will bring. This applies in spades to Conservative MPs who are shockingly relaxed about a shortage of medical supplies and flights between the UK and the EU being cancelled. They really do think it's all scaremongering.
The most shocking point for me is that 85% of Conservative MPs and 95% of all MPs who voted to leave think trade deals with the USA and China will replace trade lost with the EU. I find this amazing. It seems they get their information filtered through the pages of The Daily Mail rather than official sources.
We are flirting with disaster and it seems ever more urgent warnings from business and business groups have no effect whatever on the Brexiteer MPs. To give us a clue why this is so, look no further than UK in a Changing Europe where they have carried out a survey of MPs to find out what they think will happen on Brexit.
You can see their report HERE. The fascinating thing for me is that many members of parliament simply don't accept the risks that no deal will bring. This applies in spades to Conservative MPs who are shockingly relaxed about a shortage of medical supplies and flights between the UK and the EU being cancelled. They really do think it's all scaremongering.
The most shocking point for me is that 85% of Conservative MPs and 95% of all MPs who voted to leave think trade deals with the USA and China will replace trade lost with the EU. I find this amazing. It seems they get their information filtered through the pages of The Daily Mail rather than official sources.
The cross Whitehall briefing on the economic impact of Brexit circulated to ministers in January last year and subsequently leaked shows this idea is so far from reality I am amazed that anybody in a position of power actually believes it.
The briefing, while acknowledging a lot of uncertainty, is clear. Whatever Brexit we finish up with will cost far more in lost EU trade than we will ever replace with other trade deals.
The briefing (HERE) on page 16 indicates three options:
- Under a soft EEA type Brexit GDP decreases in the range -0.6% to -2.6%
- Under a Canada style FTA GDP decreases -3.1% to -6.6%
- Under WTO rules GDP decreases -5.0% to -10.3%
A bilateral FTA with the USA increases GDP by between 0.1% and 0.3% after fifteen years. If FTAs with China, Australia, New Zealand and other Trans Pacific Partnership countries are included the total figure climbs to between 0.2% and 0.7%.
In other words, we would just about break even under the very best scenario, inside the EEA with a lot of ambitious trade deals around the world. In the worst case of leaving with no deal we lose up to 9.6% of GDP. Remember, each 1% is worth about £20 billion a year in GDP so we are looking at a tad under £200 billion and perhaps £70 billion in tax revenues. The cost to the nation is clear. This is the price of a hard Brexit in trade.
And this assumes an orderly exit. It does not even consider the short term hit which the Bank of England estimate at 8% of GDP (HERE).
Yet 95% of MPs who voted to leave either haven't read the briefing or don't accept the figures. They are voting tonight in wilful knowledge of the consequences but don't believe they will come about. If we do leave without a deal (and I still don't expect it) history will not look on these men and women kindly.
But hold on to your hats. The roller coaster is about to set off.
But hold on to your hats. The roller coaster is about to set off.
