As we head for another cliffhanger in the House of Commons tomorrow in the never ending Brexit saga, there will be just 59 days to go and we are no nearer understanding what is likely to happen on March 29th. The Sunday Times this week contained the usual mix of Brexit related stories but a couple of stark warnings stuck out for me. The first was on page 2 in a piece by Caroline Wheeler about no deal planning. We know the government is using the Icelandic volcano eruption in 2010 as the model for the possible disruption, but a 'source' had told the Sunday Times that a no deal Brexit would be 'a thousand times worse'.
The source added, "The only other thing that would be comparable would be a major Europe-wide war". This was on page 2 remember, so inured have we become about a no deal Brexit.
The second was in the main double page spread by Tim Shipman and Caroline Wheeler together. They report some surprise in Brussels about what the Graham Brady amendment means for the Withdrawal Agreement.
They write:
"It is far from clear that Brussels will help May. Sources say Barnier had seen the Brady amendment as a possible way forward, but when British officials in Brussels (UKRep) explained that it would mean junking the entire backstop, Brussels grew cold: 'Barnier thought she couldn't really be demanding no backstop at all, but then UKRep had to explain that that's exactly what she means'.
This is apparently the level we are at after eighteen months. Neither side understands what the other is thinking.
And then later in the same piece:
"One [Remainer Minister] who attended a meeting last week on data transfers with the EU in the event of no deal said the content, 'sent a shiver down the spine'"
He said, "It was one of those meetings where ministers responsible for for no deal planning in their own departments sit around and say how dismal everything is. We're all gazing at colleagues realising how unprepared we are".
So much for everything being hunky-dory under no deal. As I have often said, don't worry about it because it ain't likely to happen. But the UK will have to climb down a very long way and very soon. I don't believe even Jacob Rees-Mogg would think leaving without a deal was fine if he was PM and listened to the same apocalyptic warnings.
No PM is going to do it, perhaps with the exception of Boris who is so stupid that he might. He is urging the PM to renegotiate the Withdrawal Agreement, something the Irish deputy PM and Foreign Minister, Simon Coveney says cannot happen (HERE) but I imagine we will try it anyway.
"Writing in The Telegraph (HERE), the former Foreign Secretary says he has heard 'from the lips of very senior sources' that the Prime Minister is planning to go to Brussels and renegotiate the Northern Ireland customs backstop".
"Describing the plans as 'unadulterated good Brexit news', he says an exit mechanism or sunset clause will'defuse the booby trap' and give the UK a 'way out' to negotiate a Canada-style trade deal with the EU".
BoJo does not seem to realise a Canada Style Trade deal will require the backstop.
There was also comment on Theresa May's husband Phillip and his role in the whole mess. He has apparently 'scuppered' a proposal by Gavin Barwell, No 10's chief of staff to reach out to Labour MPs for support. The cabinet don't know what she's thinking but Philip probably does because they've discussed it. Amazing.
This is reinforced by this article in this morning's Telegraph HERE. The farce is now turning into a pantomime. Taking back control means taking it back from the EU and giving it to an unelected family member. Who said Brexit wasn't like Trump?
