Friday 4 January 2019

NO DEAL PUBLICITY BLITZ STARTS NEXT WEEK

Next week the government is planning what is being called a publicity blitz setting out what people need to do in the event of our leaving without a deal. Brexiteer MPs will be sceptical that this isn't a way of applying pressure on them indirectly through the fears of their own constituents. The Telegraph is first out of the blocks with renewed claims of scaremongering (HERE).

Stephen Barclay, the new Brexit Secretary had a piece in The Daily Express (HERE) 'warning' the EU that we really, really, really do mean to 'go it alone' and saying the public information campaign will raise awareness about the need to be ready. Brussels will find it hard to stifle a yawn I think.

All this proposed publicity will be good for us. It is timed to coincide with the return of MPs to parliament next week but is unlikely to change the minds of many members. The Express reports Rees-Mogg saying there was "no sign at all" that the tide of opinion in the Commons was turning.

"I think it was based on the false premise that when at home in our constituencies people would tell us to back the deal," he said. "Instead, as far as I can tell, the message is stand firm against a bad deal."

Fellow Tory MP Sir Bill Cash said: "My New Year's resolution - not to vote for the PM's Withdrawal Agreement this January.

What I hope the advertising campaign will do is persuade more voters at the margin that Brexit is a bad idea.  Politicians constantly scour the polls and if it looks like the population is swinging away from Brexit they will have no option but to change course.

The consequences of no deal would be absolutely dire, even 'cataclysmic' according to the Foreign Secretary (HERE) and 'turbulent' according to the Environment Secretary (HERE). That much is clear to me and to most remainers. But to a large section of the population it is still project fear. An official campaign carrying detailed advice about what will or could happen in the event we leave without a deal will I hope begin to persuade voters what a precarious position we are in.

If no deal is so bad, it must be obvious that Britain is in a terribly weak position to negotiate anything better than the current deal or full membership.  To emphasise this, the EU say (HERE) the deal will not be renegotiated before the meaningful vote (or afterwards  I assume).  In other words it's take it or leave it.