I like reading professor Chris Grey on Brexit. His blog is always interesting, but he doesn't post very often. One of his posts, back in November 2017 (HERE) was about Bregret, voters changing their mind on Brexit, and why there was, at the time, so little evidence of a change of heart. There is more evidence now but it's still not really decisive. His post was actually discussing the typical leave voter but there is also another, perhaps far more important, group - the Brexiteers at the centre of this national psycho drama - that we should also think about. Are they having second thoughts? And if not, why not?
His insights are about why people find it so hard to admit mistakes and says the economic and other consequences of Brexit will probably be blamed on others. We see that happening already, if it isn't the EU's fault it's Ireland or remainers or elites who are trying to thwart Brexit. Anyone in fact provided it isn't a Brexiteer or a leave voter.
Grey writes:
"If the consequences of Brexit are either denied or blamed upon the EU, and not attributed to or accepted as resulting from the vote to leave, then no such Bregret can be expected.
"If all this is right, then there are only two ways that Bregret could occur. One would be for the narrative to change and for leave voters to link the consequences with their vote. But this is extremely unlikely for basic, psychological reasons - there is a technical term for this which I can’t recall, but it is essentially because people don’t find it easy to admit that they have made a mistake. And that’s likely to be especially so if this is pointed out to them by precisely the disdainful ‘elitists’ and ‘experts’ who proved so ineffective during the campaign".
The technical term he refers to is 'cognitive dissonance' as readers pointed out to him but they also drew his attention to another phenomenon known as the 'backfire effect'.
This is a term coined by Brendan Nyhan and Jason Reifler to describe how some individuals when confronted with evidence that conflicts with their beliefs come to hold their original position even more strongly:
Nyhan and Reifler, however, interpret backfire effects "as a possible result of the process by which people counterargue preference-incongruent information and bolster their preexisting views." That seems like a roundabout way of saying that people dig in when confronted with evidence contrary to their beliefs, but it doesn't seem to explain why they do so. Another explanation involves communal reinforcement and the assumption that there is more information you don't have that supports your belief. If one knows that there is a community of believers who share your beliefs and one believes that there is probably information you don't have but which would outweigh the contrary information provided, rationalization becomes easier. It is possible that the rationalization process leads one to give more weight to reinforcement by the community of believers.
I think this is true. A leavers' opinions are often reinforced by like minded friends and colleagues who are also probably wrong but provide a sort of groupthink.
To challenge it you would need to address and convince the whole group as a single body at one time. Doing it individually runs the risk of having the subject either 'reinfected', assuming you succeeded, or believing that he or she as individuals simply don't understand the details but the group's erroneous thinking must still be correct simply because they all believe it to be true.
But what about Gove or Johnson or even Farage. Don't they ever think about what's happening? If not these particular men, there must be other high profile Brexiteers who are having second thoughts but find it hard to admit it. After all, Brexit must be proving far more difficult than any of them ever thought and we haven't even reached the hardest part yet.
I particularly single out Gove because yesterday's Sunday Times had an article by Dominic Grieve containing this fascinating sentence:
"This weekend, Michael Gove, the environment secretary, is reported to be frantically looking for a way out of this crisis"
That was it, no more was said. But Grieve knows what's going on far better than we do and it seems likely that Gove, not a stupid man but badly misguided on Brexit, is having second thoughts. If one sees a looming disaster for which you were one of the leading architects I think you might be 'frantically looking for a way out'. DEFRA is one of the departments of state most affected by Brexit and Gove is at the helm so facing real, serious and growing problems every day.
How bad do things have to get before there is an admission it has all gone terribly wrong? Of course it's hard to admit error - we are all human. Look at Tony Blair or Alstair Campbell still defending the decision on Iraq. But there are plenty of people close to foreign affairs in 2003 who were prepared to come out and admit it was a huge mistake.
Sooner or later the facade of confidence about Brexit will begin to crack and crumble. Someone prominent on the leave side will finally concede it has all been a calamitous mistake. Who will it be?
Finally, on a personal note, an old work colleague and leave voter whom I have known for over 40 years once told me the EU's accounts had never been signed off. When I told him it wasn't true and offered to provide irrefutable evidence from the European Court of Auditors, his answer was to ask me why he thought it was true! I am sure he still doesn't believe me.
Entrenched attitudes are very hard to shift. It's the 'backfire' effect.
