Dominic Grieve was on Newsnight last night defending himself from charges that his amendment, which resulted in the government's defeat yesterday afternoon, would have the effect of making a no deal outcome more likely. He rejected the charge and I think he was right to do so. But he did say something that I thought hit the nail on the head.
Grieve said the PM was trying to force through a deal that only had the support of about 20% of the population. I am not sure the figure is correct but the principle is right.
About the only thing you can definitely conclude from the 2016 referendum is
that 52% of the population were sufficiently unhappy with our present deal with the
EU to vote to leave. But to replace that with a deal which would potentially raise the level
of unhappiness is plainly ridiculous but this is what Theresa May
is attempting to do - amazingly on the basis that this is what the public
want and voted for.
I am not sure where he got the 20% figure from. The most recent YouGov
poll shows (HERE page 10) that faced with this specific question: If there were a
public vote and the choices were to stay in the EU or leave on the
Brexit terms negotiated by the government, how would you vote? The
result was:
Stay in the EU - 46
Leave on the Brexit terms negotiated by the Government - 29
Would not vote - 10
Don't know -14
Refused -2
When don't knows and wouldn't votes are removed the answer is that
remaining in the EU would win 62% to 38%. Adjusted for intention to vote
it becomes 63% to 37%. Don't forget this was a survey of over 25,557
people so very accurate. Things are looking good but not quite as good as
Dominic Grieve makes out.
So, if the deal goes finally go through we are going to be in a worse position as far as public
satisfaction with our EU relationship is concerned, with even less support for it
than the status quo.
Mrs May has negotiated a deal which began with 52% being unhappy with
our present deal to a situation where 62% would be unhappy with its
replacement. This is going backwards and certainly is not fulfilling the
wishes of the people.
Dominic Grieve said he for one would not support the deal without a second referendum to confirm that it is indeed what a majority want or would accept. I think this is a principled stand.
The YouGov survey also shows some interesting figures on the same page. Of those who voted Leave in 2016, 18% would now vote remain, while only 8% of Remain voters would vote leave. This is a 5% swing amongst those who voted in 2016 and doesn't cover new 18-24 year olds who are massively more likely to vote remain. It is way more than enough to win a second vote.
These figures cannot have escaped the political class.
Grieve is a big advocate of a second vote and I notice BNP Paribas, the French banking group, is advising clients (HERE) that a second referendum is now the 'likely outcome'.
"Sterling should strengthen more than 5 percent from current levels to
$1.36 and 85 pence per euro as consensus builds for a second referendum
on Britain’s European Union membership, BNP Paribas said on Thursday. Its
current base case was for Article 50 to be extended with a “second EU
referendum the likely outcome, or even a pre-condition for an extension"
Fingers crossed.
