I found this Commons Briefing Paper (HERE) published on 28th December summarising the consequences of leaving the EU without a deal. It's 213 pages long, covers dozens of topics and is titled: What if there's no Brexit deal? Idly flicking through it (as you do) I must say it isn't altogether reassuring. One of the issues raised is the question of the trade deals the EU has with non-EU countries. I haven't heard much about this for months and I wondered what the CBP had to say.
On page 76 I find this:
"The Government said in January 2018 that it had engaged with 70 countries covered by over 40 EU international trade agreements and had received a positive reaction to its objective of ensuring continuity in these trading relationships. An International Trade Committee (ITC) report on Continuing Application of EU trade agreements after Brexit published in February 2018 warned of trade with 70 nations “falling off a cliff edge” if the Government did not act quickly to roll over the EU’s trade deals. It said there was an urgent need for clarity “over the number, type, scope, extent and importance of the EU's trade-related agreements” and warned that substantive amendments to the rolled-over agreements were almost certain to be required. The Government told the ITC in May that it was working bilaterally with partner countries to 'to ensure continuity of effect for our international agreements beyond the implementation period'".
The ITC by the way is a parliamentary Select Committee (HERE). The chair is Angus MacNeil of the SNP.
Continuing through the paper, on page 82 I find this:
Impact of ‘no deal’ on rollover
"As of November 2017, EU bilateral and multilateral trade agreements covered 88 countries and accounted for 13% of UK trade. The UK will no longer be part of those arrangements in the case of no deal".
A bit later, on the same page:
"In his oral evidence to the ITC on 28 November 2018, Mr Hollingbery said that the Government was 'still extremely optimistic' that we will transition most of these agreements in time if there was no deal with the EU in place for Brexit day although he could 'not pretend' that 'we have one on the books yet' and could “not guarantee that all of them will be absolutely on time”
George Hollingbery is Minister of State for Trade Policy at the Department for International Trade although he sounds a bit like Sergeant Wilson in Dad's Army. Angus MacNeil is more like Corporal Jones as we see below.
I've seen very little in the press about the UK agreeing any trade deals. The only one I remember is very recently some announcement about us having reached an agreement with Switzerland but even this is vague since Angus at the ITC is now calling for 'clarity' (HERE) as reported by the BBC:
"In a letter to Dr Fox, Mr MacNeil, the chairman of the Commons International Trade Select Committee, called for clarity on which aspects of the current relationship with Switzerland are replicated and whether it would enable UK-based firms to continue trading into the country on the "same basis as they do currently".
Mr MacNeil said: "Switzerland's access to the single market requires it to accept both freedom of movement and a significant proportion of EU law. It is based not only on a trade agreement eliminating tariffs, but also on a myriad of other trade-related agreements.
"The secretary of state must clarify which aspects of this arrangement are replicated in this agreement with Switzerland. Has free movement been accepted as part of the agreement to roll-over? Does the agreement allow UK-based firms to continue trading into Switzerland on the same basis as they do today?"
So, with 75 days to go and trade deals with 88 countries set to be lost, we've managed to roll over or transition precisely - err, one and even on that we don't know what's been agreed. At least the government is 'extremely optimistic', otherwise known as thinking wishfully. After 'engaging' with 70 countries in January 2018 the result a year later is a single vague deal with Switzerland.
Looking through the whole briefing paper does not fill you with confidence that we could contemplate leaving without a deal at the end of March. There are unknowns, uncertainties and risks on almost every page and on every issue. If there is no deal at the end of March, by the first week in April the government will be fire-fighting on an epic scale right across the country.
Only a government which had completely given up on ever managing anything bigger than a whelk stall in the future would even think about leaving the EU without a deal - and so they won't.
