I have been saying for some time that leaving the EU without a deal is unthinkable for any government and a leaked report demonstrates exactly why. The Guardian has details (HERE) of what they say is a leaked document from the Cabinet Office likening a no-deal Brexit to the Icelandic ash cloud crisis from 2010.
According to this internal document the problems we may encounter include:
- A reduction in certain fresh foods and increases in prices, with people on low incomes disproportionately affected.
- Price rises across utilities and services including fuel.
- Private companies “cashing in” because they will put commercial considerations first.
- Police forces being stretched by the likelihood of protests and counter-protests, along with an increase in public disorder.
- Restocking of medicines becoming problematic after the first six weeks.
- Disruption of supplies to vets, which could “impact the UK’s ability to prevent and control disease outbreaks” among animals.
- A significant reduction in the flow of goods through Dover and Eurotunnel to as low as 13% of current capacity on the day of Brexit.
"Another scenario is that the UK and EU will not have secured a data protection agreement before Brexit, which could prevent police from having instant access to information held by European forces on EU citizens arrested in the UK.
"One concern focuses on how the government’s Cobra committee, which sits during times of emergency, will be able to make decisions before and after Brexit. While local authorities, agencies and health trusts have been making no-deal preparations, there is little understanding in Whitehall about what they have done, according to a number of sources who have spoken to the Guardian".
Which government of a democratic, liberal, western country is going to voluntarily inflict this on their own people? It is just not credible or possible.
In Davos I see Dr Fox is rightly coming in for some criticism (HERE) on Sky News from the CEO of Unipart who describes the Trade Secretary's credibility as "extremely low" although even this is considered high praise for him in some quarters, not a million miles from where I am typing this post.
Given what a no deal outcome looks like what is any normal person to make of this response from the DIT:
"A spokesman for Dr Fox said: "Dr Fox has been clear that it is in everyone's interests to reach a deal and he wants the UK to leave the EU with a deal.
"However, it is only responsible of him and the rest of the Government, to ensure that the country is prepared for a range of outcomes including the possibility of no deal - which we all want to avoid.
"A friend of Dr Fox said: 'The people trying to discredit Liam need to accept that the UK voted to leave the EU in a democratic referendum and the result must be honoured'".
The 'friend' seems to think Brexit must be honoured whatever the disaster that befalls the country but I am not as confident as he is that the people, even dedicated leavers, will see it that way. They were never told the price of Brexit.
Yesterday morning there was prominence given in the media to reports that some EU countries were pressing their negotiators at the Commission to 'soften' their position on cabotage rights for UK hauliers and airlines allowing them to operate between destination inside the EU. If you recall the EU issued some guidelines in December that would grant us limited rights of access into the EU for nine months after Brexit but not between EU countries.
Adam Fleming at the BBC seems to have broken the story HERE which says:
"The legislation would allow British truckers to carry goods into the EU and British airlines to fly in and out of the EU, from 29 March to 31 December. But a group of countries want to give UK hauliers the right to operate within the EU as well, known as cabotage".
These are microscopic crumbs of comfort since (a) they don't solve the border delay issues and (b) would only last for nine months anyway.
But amazingly, the BBC then kaibosh their own story by reporting the words of Bruno Le Maire, the French finance minister telling Nick Robinson that you can't be out of the single market and have the benefits of it. So, it's a non runner anyway.
Even the crumbs are fantasies.
Yesterday morning there was prominence given in the media to reports that some EU countries were pressing their negotiators at the Commission to 'soften' their position on cabotage rights for UK hauliers and airlines allowing them to operate between destination inside the EU. If you recall the EU issued some guidelines in December that would grant us limited rights of access into the EU for nine months after Brexit but not between EU countries.
Adam Fleming at the BBC seems to have broken the story HERE which says:
"The legislation would allow British truckers to carry goods into the EU and British airlines to fly in and out of the EU, from 29 March to 31 December. But a group of countries want to give UK hauliers the right to operate within the EU as well, known as cabotage".
These are microscopic crumbs of comfort since (a) they don't solve the border delay issues and (b) would only last for nine months anyway.
But amazingly, the BBC then kaibosh their own story by reporting the words of Bruno Le Maire, the French finance minister telling Nick Robinson that you can't be out of the single market and have the benefits of it. So, it's a non runner anyway.
Even the crumbs are fantasies.
