Saturday 2 February 2019

A DELAY IS COMING - THE FIRST CRACKS START TO APPEAR

Rees-Mogg and Liam Fox are now joining Hunt, Hammond and Javid in softening up the public for a delay in Article 50.  The consumptive Victorian undertaker says 'a short extension is not impossible' if we get a deal very late in the process in order to get legislation through the House. If we don't agree a deal apparently we are okay to leave on March 29th without bothering to get the statute book up to the mark.

I think this is a demonstration that the March 29th date is simply being used to try and apply a bit of pressure to Brussels.

The Telegraph (HERE £ or HERE no£) report him saying the timetable is 'tight' for agreeing and legislating for a deal. He says that the EU often finalises deals just before the deadline, meaning that the 'proper scrutiny' needed for the laws that would underpin the deal could not be done in time.

“If the agreement were made but a little Parliamentary time were needed, as long as the Second Reading [of Brexit-related Bills] had taken place a short extension is not impossible.”

But he added that 'to delay for the purpose of vacuous discussions would be solely to thwart Brexit' and Britain should leave without a deal on March 29 if negotiations have not been completed.

There will have to be a delay to Article 50 regardless of whether we agree a deal or not. But the threat of leaving without a deal is seriously damaging the wealth creating parts of the economy. It is putting a gun to the head of British industry and telling the EU they must agree a deal before March 29th or we will destroy our own manufacturing base. When put like this you can see how ridiculous it is.

Jonathan Lis in The Guardian (HERE) thinks, as I do, that we are not ready to leave on March 29th but the PM is in denial about it and is, as usual, sticking stubbornly to the plan long after everyone else can see it cannot be executed. She is pathetically trying to make the EU sweat but they only look on bemused. Every day that ticks down sees more businesses moving operations to the EU - the Institute of Directors claims nearly one in three companies (HERE) have either relocated or are planning to.

Mrs May is at risk of doing more damage to Britain's manufacturing sector in the next few weeks than all previous governments put together.

The latest industry to sound the klaxon is the chemicals industry (HERE) who say a deal of some kind is 'indispensable' and some continuing role in the European Chemicals Agency is also needed. 

Yesterday, The Independent (HERE) claimed serious work is being done inside government on some mechanism to keep us inside the customs union - in a bid to try and persuade more Labour rebels to support a new deal.  The problem here of course is that for every Labour supporter added they will lose one from the ERG.

Finally, if you haven't seen it already I thought this tweet from lawyer David Allen Green summed up last weeks vote perfectly: