In a perfect demonstration, as if we needed one, that the government's right hand doesn't know what the left hand is doing and that government policy is being made up on the hoof as we drift aimlessly along, DEFRA Secretary Michael Gove told an NFU conference that Britain will apply tariffs to imported food stuffs to protect the agricultural sector in the event of a no deal Brexit (HERE) and (HERE).
And so he invented another circle to be squared. How effortless it all is for this former journalist.
And so he invented another circle to be squared. How effortless it all is for this former journalist.
We have been told umpteen times that whatever happens the UK government will not impose a hard border in Ireland in which case it will be interesting to see how tariffs will be collected or more importantly how goods on which tariffs should be applied don't get in without those tariffs. Perhaps they will employ technology and use a 'trusted smuggler' scheme. Register anonymously with the PSNI and HMRC and we will at least be able to calculate the VAT and tariffs we are losing on cross-border trade in Ireland.
No? Well, it was just an idea, I called it 'minimum facilitation'.
No? Well, it was just an idea, I called it 'minimum facilitation'.
This blog (HERE) thinks Gove's announcement means we are effectively planning for a hard border.
Newsnight last night said a row was developing in cabinet between Gove on one side and Fox and Hammond on the other. The latter two want to slash tariffs in the event of a no deal Brexit while Gove is opting to protect farmers in some sectors.
Newsnight last night said a row was developing in cabinet between Gove on one side and Fox and Hammond on the other. The latter two want to slash tariffs in the event of a no deal Brexit while Gove is opting to protect farmers in some sectors.
Gerard Lyons, BoJo's economics advisor when he was Mayor of London and co-founder of Economists for Brexit, was on the programme debating with a Nick Von Westenholz from the NFU. Lyons an ardent Brexiteer, was on Fox's side, all for cutting tariffs, perhaps slowly rather than immediately as a policy response to no deal, but cutting them nonetheless. But he ended by claiming we can reduce tariffs to zero and provide high standards as well. Unfortunately, he didn't tell us how this miracle was going to happen. Perhaps he picked up a few loaves and fishes on the way home to practice.
No doubt farmers will be curious about it - especially those who voted to leave.
But it's an indication of things to come. Gove was himself probably in favour of cutting tariffs at one point but when it comes to reality he has backed off and prefers to support agriculture. Rightly in my view. Now, imagine that Fox was DEFRA Secretary and Gove was at International Trade. You can bet your life they would be arguing the opposite of their current positions. Gove would be all for cutting tariffs and Fox would be ultra protectionist. This 'flexibility' comes from a lifetime spent without ever having to make hard choices but simply write articles and think wishfully.
But trade is invariably a matter of hard choices. Something that benefits one sector will damage another. For every group in society who will be better off for a cut in tariffs there will be another deeply unhappy about it. The fishermen will soon be engaged in a fierce debate about their own future and then the car industry, chemicals and so on. Inside the EU these arguments are had across Europe and the results accepted - however grudgingly sometimes - but they apply equally to a huge market. Brexit will open up a whole new field of argument that we haven't had for 45 years.
An article in The Guardian (HERE) looks at how difficult new trade deals are to negotiate precisely because for every advantage you seek the other side will demand a price and sometimes, that price is serious damage to a sector of your economy. It's like a game of chess where you make sacrifices in order to move forward. Just hope your own sector isn't the one being sacrificed.
On the topic of farming, I noticed a few days ago (HERE) that farmers in Staffordshire are apparently furious at the the current Brexit process, slamming it as ‘chaotic’ and ‘silly.’ One farmer, Ian Fallows, who manages a farm, told StaffsLive:
“If leaving doesn’t benefit us, we will probably go out of business. We’re quite dependent on them [the EU] and the subsidies are there so we can produce the food as cheap as we can to allow the consumer to buy the product cheaper.
“If they take the subsidies away from us, the price of our produce will have to increase, affecting the consumer. We wouldn’t be in business without the subsidies.
"If we don’t leave on the 29 March, I won’t ever vote again. It was a democratic process, and we all voted. If we don’t leave, this whole process will just be a silly waste. It’s been chaos, and I just can't wait until it’s over and we leave. Then we can have certainty.
“Without certainty, we can’t plan.”
'Although it's not explicit, I think he voted leave but is frustrated at the lack of progress and certainty. He says he 'can't wait until it's over'. This is surely the greatest delusion of all.
Many people, perhaps even Mr Fallows himself, thought we could leave virtually overnight, certainly within weeks or months. They believed and probably continue to believe, that Brexit was an event, a defined point in time. It isn't. Some people recognise that Brexit will take time and think of it as a process. They're wrong too.
Brexit is a status. A permanent state of being in a negotiation with Brussels, as Sir Ivan Rogers once said, for as long as the EU and the UK exist. It will never end.
Mr Fallows might be shocked in ten years time to find we are still in talks with the EU over agriculture policy as well as everything else. The EU will bring in rules and we will have the choice, follow the rules or face British good products being banned, or having to bear tariffs. Of having to process or label goods for the EU market in a different way. The British food industry, those exporting to Europe will have a permanent sword of Damocles hanging over it, not knowing at anytime when things might be banned or subject to new rules over which they have no control.
Of all the sectors that will be impacted by Brexit farming is in the front line. Many voted with a sense of hope that things would be better, but hope is slowly turning to fear.
No doubt farmers will be curious about it - especially those who voted to leave.
But it's an indication of things to come. Gove was himself probably in favour of cutting tariffs at one point but when it comes to reality he has backed off and prefers to support agriculture. Rightly in my view. Now, imagine that Fox was DEFRA Secretary and Gove was at International Trade. You can bet your life they would be arguing the opposite of their current positions. Gove would be all for cutting tariffs and Fox would be ultra protectionist. This 'flexibility' comes from a lifetime spent without ever having to make hard choices but simply write articles and think wishfully.
But trade is invariably a matter of hard choices. Something that benefits one sector will damage another. For every group in society who will be better off for a cut in tariffs there will be another deeply unhappy about it. The fishermen will soon be engaged in a fierce debate about their own future and then the car industry, chemicals and so on. Inside the EU these arguments are had across Europe and the results accepted - however grudgingly sometimes - but they apply equally to a huge market. Brexit will open up a whole new field of argument that we haven't had for 45 years.
An article in The Guardian (HERE) looks at how difficult new trade deals are to negotiate precisely because for every advantage you seek the other side will demand a price and sometimes, that price is serious damage to a sector of your economy. It's like a game of chess where you make sacrifices in order to move forward. Just hope your own sector isn't the one being sacrificed.
On the topic of farming, I noticed a few days ago (HERE) that farmers in Staffordshire are apparently furious at the the current Brexit process, slamming it as ‘chaotic’ and ‘silly.’ One farmer, Ian Fallows, who manages a farm, told StaffsLive:
“If leaving doesn’t benefit us, we will probably go out of business. We’re quite dependent on them [the EU] and the subsidies are there so we can produce the food as cheap as we can to allow the consumer to buy the product cheaper.
“If they take the subsidies away from us, the price of our produce will have to increase, affecting the consumer. We wouldn’t be in business without the subsidies.
"If we don’t leave on the 29 March, I won’t ever vote again. It was a democratic process, and we all voted. If we don’t leave, this whole process will just be a silly waste. It’s been chaos, and I just can't wait until it’s over and we leave. Then we can have certainty.
“Without certainty, we can’t plan.”
'Although it's not explicit, I think he voted leave but is frustrated at the lack of progress and certainty. He says he 'can't wait until it's over'. This is surely the greatest delusion of all.
Many people, perhaps even Mr Fallows himself, thought we could leave virtually overnight, certainly within weeks or months. They believed and probably continue to believe, that Brexit was an event, a defined point in time. It isn't. Some people recognise that Brexit will take time and think of it as a process. They're wrong too.
Brexit is a status. A permanent state of being in a negotiation with Brussels, as Sir Ivan Rogers once said, for as long as the EU and the UK exist. It will never end.
Mr Fallows might be shocked in ten years time to find we are still in talks with the EU over agriculture policy as well as everything else. The EU will bring in rules and we will have the choice, follow the rules or face British good products being banned, or having to bear tariffs. Of having to process or label goods for the EU market in a different way. The British food industry, those exporting to Europe will have a permanent sword of Damocles hanging over it, not knowing at anytime when things might be banned or subject to new rules over which they have no control.
Of all the sectors that will be impacted by Brexit farming is in the front line. Many voted with a sense of hope that things would be better, but hope is slowly turning to fear.
