Brexit certainly throws up some strange things. Andrew Percy, MP for Goole, was a fervent Brexiteer, or so I thought. In 2016 he was at the forefront of the Leave campaign urging local people to vote to leave the EU alongside Nigel Adams. But he now seems to have got cold feet. The bold global trading freebooter is beginning to look more like a nervous stall holder on Goole market selling a few jars of home made jam.
He is joint leader of the group of Tory MPs known as the Brexit Delivery Group, (think of White Van man for Brexit) now urging the PM to take no-deal off the table (HERE). He sounds a bit nervous as if he's just realised how damaging Brexit will be unless we get a trade deal with the EU.
Mr Percy said in a letter [to the PM]: “The reputation for competence of both the party and the Government depends on our ability to deliver an orderly exit, in line with the existing timescale.
“Whilst we fully expect some changes to the [Northern Ireland] backstop arrangements to be made by ministers in Brussels this week, there remains a chance that these will not satisfy some colleagues.
"Numerous members of our group have alerted us to their intention (should rejection of the deal look likely) to get behind amendments that are planned in the name of Oliver Letwin and others and which will have the twin effect of taking no deal off the table and delaying Brexit.”
You have to fear for Mr Percy if he 'fully expects' some changes to the backstop arrangements 'this week'. Where has he been?
And if you believe the UK absolutely needs a trade deal then there must be a growing realisation that we are inevitably in a weak position. It follows if we are in a weak position, getting a better deal than the one we've got now is impossible. Mr Percy will understand it - eventually. In an odd way the PM is right, without a credible alternative we have no leverage in the negotiations and she knows there is no credible alternative - leaving without a deal is the only lever she's got - but is just not credible.
Percy is not quite as gung-ho as David Collins, professor of International Economic Law at City University who has an article in The Daily Telegraph (HERE no £). Collins thinks no-deal is fine, with a bit of preparation. Perhaps nobody has told him there are just 34 days to go.
He says:
"Once the now imminent ‘no-deal’ takes effect, hopefully on time for March 29th, there will be a period of adjustment which could cause some disruptions, but it will be short-lived, and we will quickly recover. Fully in control of our trade policy rather than bound by the EU’s endless backstop, FTAs with our trading allies around the world will fall into place and there will be bright days ahead".
He talks about a "period of adjustment" after a no deal Brexit, I suppose in the same way you might need such a period after plummeting off a cliff edge onto jagged rocks. Crikey, you would certainly need to catch your breath and perhaps some Elastoplast. I mean, nobody would expect you to run a marathon for at least an hour or two. You can't hit rocks at that speed without a bit of "disruption" can you, be fair.
Professor Collins (I have some second hand knowledge of professors and they are not always the sharpest knife in the drawer, outside of their own specialities) uses the old analogy about Brexit being like haggling for a car down at the local Vauxhall dealers:
"From a tactical standpoint, the persistent rejection of ‘no deal’ is staggering in its absurdity. Imagine going into any negotiation (buying a car, house, whatever) and declaring: ‘Just to let you know – I have to buy xyz. I cannot leave here without it.’ The seller (in this case the EU) will have the luxury of setting whatever terms they wish, no matter how unreasonable. The only way to have any genuine leverage in a transaction is by being prepared to walk away. Yet this is bizarrely what some of our MPs would have us do in relation to the Brexit withdrawal negotiations".
But of course, if you leave the dealership without the car you are exactly where you were before you went in. You didn't own the vehicle when you went in and you didn't own it when you came out. Nothing changes.
The more correct analogy in my opinion would be that you are committed to jumping off a cliff at a specific time and date and then negotiating to buy the only available parachute. The seller may not believe you're prepared to walk away because his price is too high - and you might secretly have your doubts too (go on you must have some). If you carry out your threat things do not remain exactly the same. In fact things will seem remarkably different when you reach the bottom - trust me.
David Collins, being an academic should carry out a simple test at Beachy Head to prove my theory one way or the other. I am ready to help in any way I can. Altogether now - Push!
David Collins, being an academic should carry out a simple test at Beachy Head to prove my theory one way or the other. I am ready to help in any way I can. Altogether now - Push!
