Well, Theresa May did exactly what was predicted yesterday morning. She was forced into more concessions. The meaningful vote will take place at the latest on 12th March, if it fails - as it surely will - the following day MPs will vote on whether the UK should leave without a deal. On this question, they have already voted by a majority to stop it and I assume they will do the same again. Also, note they are getting something we won't, a chance to vote for the same thing twice.
If they reject a no deal Brexit for a second time - again as they certainly will - then the day after that, the House will vote for a short, limited delay. And we know pretty well they will vote for that.
So, it's virtually certain we are not leaving on March 30th but then I didn't think we would.
But we still do not know what mechanism she will use to extend the date. If she asks for a delay it needs the unanimous support of all 27 members and some members may well put conditions on their approval. Some people think the EU will firstly want to know what the purpose is. If it amounts to another three months of internal UK wrangling they may not want to continue the uncertainty.
If May can't get a short unconditional delay it will be a choice of revoking Article 50 and effectively resetting the clock, something she again said yesterday she would not do, or resignation. It would be checkmate. She would be unable to get the deal through, couldn't delay Brexit and couldn't leave without a deal. She could never survive and we would be in a crisis the likes of which this country has never seen.
Strangely, Robert Peston HERE thinks the Brexiteers will be perfectly relaxed with a three month extension because they will be able to vote down her deal on March 12th without worrying about the disruptive consequences of exiting without a deal. He obviously hasn't spoken to Jacob Rees-Mogg the leader of the ERG who seems less than happy about it all, writing in The Telegraph (HERE) that it's all a plot to stop Brexit.
Rachel Sylvester, a Times journalist has written a piece about Mrs May which is not very flattering. A former cabinet secretary saying she is the "worst prime minister - ever". I think we can all agree with that. She comes across in the article as a very odd person. Nobody knows what she's thinking or if she has any real political convictions at all.
"Even politicians who are normally loyal are being forced into desperate measures because they see a catastrophic vacuum of leadership at the top. One former cabinet secretary, who has worked for several leaders, told me that Mrs May is 'the worst prime minister — by a mile'. As he put it: 'Her way of running the government is completely dysfunctional. On an issue like Brexit, you have got to find a solution that brings as many people on board as possible, but she’s in the bunker. She has no authority, no powers of persuasion. The cabinet is hopelessly divided and she has no ability to unify them.' "
"Even politicians who are normally loyal are being forced into desperate measures because they see a catastrophic vacuum of leadership at the top. One former cabinet secretary, who has worked for several leaders, told me that Mrs May is 'the worst prime minister — by a mile'. As he put it: 'Her way of running the government is completely dysfunctional. On an issue like Brexit, you have got to find a solution that brings as many people on board as possible, but she’s in the bunker. She has no authority, no powers of persuasion. The cabinet is hopelessly divided and she has no ability to unify them.' "
She appears as a lonely figure, a titular head of the cabinet but with no leadership qualities at all:
"The prime minister’s personal and political flaws are catching up with her. Instead of seeing herself as 'first among equals' in the cabinet, she seems to revel in self-inflicted isolation. One senior Tory points out that, in the absence of collective cabinet responsibility, she does not even have a 'kitchen cabinet' of friends she can rely on to give her sound advice and moral support. 'She’s got to stop trying to wear it all on her shoulders,' a cabinet minister says. Another argues that the prime minister’s insularity is damaging the prospects of overcoming the divisions in the country. 'Rather than talking about getting the deal ‘over the line’ we should be aiming for a ‘coming together’.
"This is not the Theresa May way. An only child, the prime minister is a natural introvert who has always been reluctant to open up to others. When she became leader she made a virtue of her unclubbability, banishing the 'chillaxing' of the David Cameron years: one of the first things she did was to replace the sofa in the prime minister’s study with a table and hard chairs".
This all came on the day the government published the no deal impact assessment that Anna Soubry had forced them to do, the 15 page document (HERE) is a summary of information already in the public domain and it almost certainly underplays the problem. The news outlets are picking up on a few key facts:
- Customs declarations alone will cost industry £13 billion a year
- Just 40,000 firms (of 240,000) have applied for an Economic Operator number
- The economy would shrink by 9% (about £200 billion a year) by 2033
But the car industry gets one paragraph (33) which says a no deal Brexit is a 'major concern' since 42.8% of UK car production in 2018 went to the EU27. Major concern is putting it mildly I think.
But none of this bothers David 'Bruiser' Davis who writes in The Mail (HERE) that we shouldn't take no deal off the table and the PM must:-
"Ignore the saboteurs, the wreckers, and the blackmailers. Don’t concede ground. Free our minds of doubt and danger. We can achieve it. Hold our nerve and deliver what we promised".
This is a wilful ignoring of the catastrophe outlined in the assessment. He thinks we can use it as a negotiating strategy. This is like trying to beat your opponent over the head using some hostages as a club. It's insane.
All the talk of saboteurs, wreckers and blackmailers is reminiscent of the Soviet Ministry of Production circa 1935 when the tractor output figures were down. What have we come to?
