Theresa May has put the meaningful vote back yet again (HERE) perhaps to March 12th. She must be the greatest kicker of cans in history. Procrastination has become an art form for her. We could be just 17 days from exiting the EU before MPs get to vote to accept the deal or not. The date is not arbitrary, it is the day before the date set out in the Letwin/Cooper amendment, which will be voted on in parliament this Wednesday, to force the government to delay Brexit in the absence of a deal.
Everything is getting very complicated. Robert Peston explains it all HERE.
Essentially, he believes she will probably get some tweaks to the political declaration from the EU and perhaps a semi-meaningless codicil but it won't be anywhere near enough for the ERG. Leaving it so late, she hopes it will persuade some hard liners to support the deal or risk no Brexit, especially if we have to go for a long delay - as the EU appears to be working toward this morning.
Bizarrely, Peston says May is urging MPs NOT to vote for the Letwin/Cooper amendment this week although she actually needs it if the ERG are to have real pressure put on them. It's probably a case of the PM using coded signals to ask her MPs to do what they know she wants rather than what she says - because she can't openly say it. If the amendment doesn't pass on Wednesday then the default option will be no deal, something that many in the ERG would actually welcome.
Personally, I think if it came to the crunch the PM herself would revoke Article 50 and might even feel justified in doing so if she feels the ERG are blocking a deal. The howls from industry and trade organisations will be utterly deafening by then with the risk of real and permanent damage to our economy.
If by some miracle she manages, by whatever means, to get the WA through parliament, will it be the basis for a lasting settlement anyway? I doubt it. The deal doesn't really have solid cross-party support and polls put public opinion at no more than 30% in favour of it. How can it work?
Think about this. In the referendum 52% of us were unhappy with the existing deal, after we leave 70% or more will be unhappy. Is this a good foundation for the future? Of course not, it's a recipe for more division and argument.
But back to the current crisis. Michael Gove says the government is making progress in the talks but admits that food prices could rocket (HERE) in the event of a no deal exit. By 'progress' I think he is speaking in glacial time, which as DEFRA Secretary he may feel is appropriate.
The Guardian (HERE) has another explainer and also raises the important question of how remainer cabinet ministers might react to the delay taking us another step closer to the abyss:
"Deep divisions in the cabinet over how to manage Brexit burst into the open this week, with three ministers – Amber Rudd, David Gauke and Greg Clark – saying in a statement published in the Daily Mail on Saturday that if a breakthrough could not be achieved 'in the next few days' then the article 50 notice period for leaving the EU must be extended.
"May is now promising to bring her deal back to parliament for a second meaningful vote on 12 March, just 17 days before Britain is due to leave the EU.
"The comments by Rudd, Gauke and Clark suggested they were ready to join the string of ministers who have signalled that they are prepared to defy party whips in order to back the Cooper-Letwin amendment".
We may be seeing the cabinet fragment as early as this week although there is the expectation that the PM will find a way of politically keeping it all together for a bit longer.
As you might expect, Labour and the SNP are very unhappy about more delay (HERE). Yvette Cooper tweeted that it was "incredibly irresponsible when food prices, manufacturing jobs, medicine supplies and security are all at stake".
Last November David Liddington, the deputy PM in all but name, told us (HERE) we were within 'touching distance' of a deal and the PM was 'cautiously optimistic'. Three months (three months!) later leaving with a deal is 'still within our grasp' (HERE). One can imagine as we all get older and greyer, Mrs May will have to employ script writers to come up with ever more imaginative ways of saying a deal is getting closer until the only thing between us and the Withdrawal Agreement will be an extra fine set of feeler gauges - and Mrs May's own red lines.
