Theresa May made a speech in Belfast yesterday afternoon, as a way of reaffirming her determination to square the impossible circle, untie the Gordian knot and find her way out of the Brexit backstop maze. The full speech has been posted on Brexit Central (HERE). She called for the backstop in the Withdrawal Agreement to be replaced or changed to include a time limit or a unilateral exit clause.
Anyone listening could be forgiven for thinking she was criticising someone else's efforts, but no, it was all her own work - something she omitted to mention, presumably to spare journalists from asking her about it.
The key section of the speech was this:
"I can only deliver on the commitments we have made if I can get a deal through the UK Parliament. And meetings with MPs across the House showed that I can only get a deal through Parliament if legal changes are made to the backstop. And that is why the UK Government – and a majority of MPs from across the House of Commons – supported the amendment from Sir Graham Brady last week. It reaffirms our desire to leave with a deal and our commitment to no hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland.
"I can only deliver on the commitments we have made if I can get a deal through the UK Parliament. And meetings with MPs across the House showed that I can only get a deal through Parliament if legal changes are made to the backstop. And that is why the UK Government – and a majority of MPs from across the House of Commons – supported the amendment from Sir Graham Brady last week. It reaffirms our desire to leave with a deal and our commitment to no hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland.
"And as Sir Graham himself set out, it would mean replacing the backstop with another arrangement which avoids a hard border or making legally binding changes to the backstop to introduce a time limit or create an exit mechanism".
The EU must be ripping their hair out at the number of times they have repeated that the WA will not be reopened, so this does away with the idea of replacing the backstop with another arrangement. And while the EU are happy to provide clarification on the political declaration, they have again said consistently, putting a time limit on it would render the whole thing void when the time ran out. Neither of May's ideas are not going to be acceptable and she must know it.
As for telling us the only way she can get the deal through parliament is for changes to be made to the backstop, you can only admire her chutzpah. She negotiated the backstop and asked for it to be extended to the whole UK after the DUP baulked at the thought of Northern Ireland being treated slightly differently to Great Britain. And as the business minister Richard Harrington pointed out in the last few days, it is precisely because the 'alternative arrangement' could not be found - by the brightest minds in Europe - that the backstop came into being.
May is now going back to July 2017 trying to square the very circle she is going round and round.
Interestingly, she has actually touched up some of her red lines once again to sharpen them:
- First, we stand by our commitment in the Joint Report that there will be no hard border, including any physical infrastructure or related checks and controls
- neither will I compromise on my promise to protect Northern Ireland’s integral place in the UK. When the European Commission proposed a version of the backstop which involved creating a customs border in the Irish Sea, I successfully resisted it.
The only red line she didn't mention was leaving the customs union and the single market. Is that about to change? Who knows. But the Brexiteers will be very suspicious.
The EU have still not been told officially what she intends to ask for so the speech will be interesting for them. The PM seems to think dashing off to places to make speeches is somehow helping to make progress but she is mistaken. It is all getting a bit tiresome, like watching a fly buzzing aimlessly around the room.
At the heart of all the unedifying shenanigans of the last two months is one central issue.
The prime minister is totally incapable of pulling together the different strands in her own fragmented party and getting a unified position while the EU Commission almost effortlessly manages to get complete consensus from politicians in 27 diverse countries across an entire continent. She now wants the EU 27 to restart negotiations because she is unable to persuade 320 MPs from the Conservative party and the DUP that her deal is the best she can get.
I'm not sure if this says something about the strength, cohesion, quality and professionalism of the EU or the incredible Olympic standard incompetence on our side.
The Irish Times say (HERE) the main message to take away from her speech is that the EU 27 must blink first. Don't hold your breath.
