It's another bizarre day in the Brexit saga. Theresa May told the cabinet yesterday that the 'Malthouse compromise' can't be worked up into a 'concrete proposal' before March 29th and has therefore ruled it out as a way of ditching the backstop (HERE). She is off to see Jean Claude Juncker in Brussels later today so it's not clear what she's going to say that might break the logjam. Mind you this is hardly a new state of affairs - it's not been clear what she has been 'negotiating' with the EU since November when the draft Withdrawal Agreement was published.
But in a move typical of Mrs May, after telling her cabinet the Malthouse compromise is dead, later the same day, after a meeting with the ERG, she convinced them it's still alive (HERE). I don't know how she does it. The MC is a bit like Schroedinger's cat. It is both alive and dead.
The reason for the apparent disparity is that the MC might still be an option for the trade talks - assuming they ever get under way. The iNews report (HERE) the MC is alive but only as part of the Political Declaration. They say:
"Mrs May will say the UK has drawn up new legal clarifications on the Irish backstop, the insurance policy to prevent a hard border on the island of Ireland, which she hopes will be agreed by Brussels allowing technical talks to begin".
Binning the Malthouse Compromise as a solution to the present impasse was, according to Channel 4 anyway, the EU's position which tells us something about who is running the 'negotiations'.
Juncker says nobody would block a delay to Brexit (HERE) and no doubt this will be discussed today since we know this was raised by Varadkar in talks with Mrs May (HERE) although she apparently made it clear she won't seek an extension. Varadkar is quoted as saying:
“ 'I have raised the issue of Article 50 potentially being extended and the Prime Minister has made her position clear that she intends the UK will leave the EU on time on the date that they have set for it,' he told the Dáil".
Don't be fooled. this is just a negotiating ploy - she will be forced to ask for a delay at some point.
Meanwhile, the Attorney General, Geoffrey Cox (HERE) is also said to be on his way to Brussels this week along with Stephen Barclay, this month's Brexit Secretary, to present the 'legal clarifications' that The iNews mentioned above. Barclay also held another meeting with Barnier on Monday.
The Herald in Scotland (HERE) report commission spokesman Margaritis Schinas saying once again, that the EU was not prepared to re-open the Withdrawal Agreement.
This flurry of displacement activity is neatly summed up by our old mate Robert Peston at ITV HERE. He says it's strange how some members of the cabinet think the PM has a 'coherent plan' while others think it's all more delusion.
Peston claims:
"..' another minister told me; A) this putative cunning plan is 'basically for second stage' of the Brexit rescue process; B) won’t be ready in time for next week’s important Commons vote and; C) that Cox himself is 'not behaving like a man who thinks he has a solution' ".
And:
"For as far as I can glean, from conversations with several cabinet ministers, the PM/Cox backstop compromise seems likely to disappoint more-or-less everyone (though as one minister said to me, at least the PM is consistent in that respect)".
Essentially, he says Brussels now think a no deal Brexit is odds on at 60% and:
" 'In London, her more Remain-y ministers talk openly that before next week’s votes by MPs the PM should pledge to ask the EU for a Brexit delay - or she’ll see perhaps 20 of them resign'. One said: 'She’ll have to choose: moderate ministers or ERG'. So just maybe if your bookie is offering you 60% odds of no deal, you should buy them".
Stephen Barclay thinks the new proposals will be enough to secure a deal (HERE) but as Mandy Rice Davies once said, "He would say that wouldn't he?".
If you are any the wiser after all this all I can say is I'm very surprised.
