Olly Robbins, our chief Brexit negotiator, has been overheard by Angus Walker, an ITV reporter, in a late night Brussels hotel bar talking about the negotiations and what he thinks the eventual choice facing MPs will be (HERE). Robbins told his drinking companions he expected parliament to be forced to choose between the prime minister's deal or a long delay to Brexit. The ERG will apparently be offered a poor consolation prize immediately or delayed gratification and the prospect of a better prize later - perhaps much later.
This is described by Robert Peston as a 'scoop' (HERE) although a delay always was a 100% certainty even if the PM can't actually bring herself to say so just yet. Going over the cliff edge may be the default option but it doesn't mean it will happen, especially if the driver isn't a homicidal maniac - and for all her many faults, I don't think the PM is.
If anything the news might embolden pro remain MPs who are probably not that unhappy about a long delay.
Robbins also talked about the customs union - the one Theresa May keeps firmly ruling out. He says the original idea of the backstop was as a 'bridge' to a future customs union. This is seen as 'explosive' in the ITV report although again it's perfectly obvious. I posted about it the day before yesterday (HERE).
The so called 'alternative arrangements' as a way of circumventing the backstop and rendering it a dead letter must take us closer to regulatory alignment and a customs union. The Political Declaration itself (paragraph 23) expressly talks about the need to "build and improve on the single customs territory provided for in the Withdrawal Agreement which obviates the need for checks on rules of origin".
What is this except a customs union in all but name?
From the ITV report:
"What is also striking is how Robbins confirmed that the original plan was for the backstop, which would keep the UK in the customs union, was designed not as a "safety net" for the island of Ireland but as 'a bridge' to the long-term trading relationship - which is something the prime minister has always denied.
"The big clash all along is the ‘safety net’,” Robbins said. 'We agreed a bridge but it came out as a ‘safety net’."
"These remarks by Robbins are explosive, because they will confirm the fears of Tory Brexiters that he and May always saw some form of customs union membership as the long term ambition for the UK's trading relationship with the EU".
"Had it stayed as a ‘bridge’ into a customs union that might have lessened Labour opposition to the deal".
The ERG and other mad keen Brexiteers will have their noses put out of joint and Liam Fox will be particularly miffed. Robbins has never been popular with the Brexiteers but now he will be even more of a hate figure.
Stephen Barclay, the Brexit secretary and a man who makes Chris Grayling seem competent, was on Radio 4 this morning, but refused to comment on Robbins's overheard conversation. The item on the Today programme included haulage companies whose business was 80% European based but faced closure in weeks because they had not been allocated continental permits.
Pressed on this, Barclays said we needed to get an agreement in order to deal with a 'multitude of uncertainties' and I for me this was I think the key point.
The PM's deal will not get approved by MPs. And dealing quickly with a 'multitude of uncertainties' is not going to be easy - if you try to handle each one with a bespoke fix. What is needed is a single overarching solution and this MUST be to simply extend the status quo and Article 50. There is no other option.
More details have emerged about Stephen Barclay's visit on Monday to Brussels. We are apparently trying to convince the EU that the backstop is illegal (HERE) under EU treaties. We still seem to believe we're negotiating with a few simple natives five hundred years ago. The EU are lawyers first and foremost and trying to tell them the backstop is illegal is really just having a laugh.
I note Bernard Ingham, Mrs Thatcher's former press secretary, writing in The Yorkshire Post (HERE) says not to worry the EU will blink first because this is what the EU does. He is talking as if we are remaining a member - we are not and the EU will treat us as a non-member. They are not going to blink because they don't need to.
