Thursday 7 February 2019

THE BREXIT FOG IS AS THICK AS EVER

I am not sure Donald Tusk's comments at the end of his press conference with Leo Varadkar were wise, although they were undoubtedly true. We will have to see what happens. There is an awful lot of faux outrage this morning as Mrs May heads back to Brussels. Brexiteers who "promoted Brexit without the sketch of a plan" do deserve a special place in Hell but saying it in public is not perhaps the most helpful thing he could have said.

The BBC described it as an 'outburst' (HERE) but it was part of his prepared text so I think it was all intended, as if he'd finally given up on persuading his colleagues that Brexit might be reversed. Martin Kettle in The Guardian HERE thinks Tusk was actually using moderate language.

"Donald Tusk should be criticised not for his malice, but his moderation. The European council president triggered a tsunami of confected outrage from leavers today when he observed, with some justice, that there should be a special place in hell for those who promoted Brexit without a plan. But he should have said far more. He should have added that, within that special place, there should be an executive suite of sleepless torment for those politicians who promoted Brexit without ever giving a stuff about Ireland".

The nation is divided into two camps, those who realise what Tusk said is true and those at the moment who do not. In a year or two we will all be in the same camp and the Brexiteers might then acknowledge Tusk's words were absolutely right - and prepare for purgatory.

The PM is off to meet Juncker in Brussels again but even The Daily Mail (HERE) doesn't think she's going to get any change:

"At a press conference with Irish PM Leo Varadkar [yesterday] afternoon, Mr Juncker said he was looking forward to welcoming Mrs May but added: 'She knows that the commission is not prepared to reopen the issue'."  

As the end date looms with no prospect of a negotiated agreement in sight, a ratcheting up the rhetoric is probably unavoidable and this may be the start of an inevitable rise in temperature over the next few weeks. But both sides need to be careful. At best Brexit is going to drive a wedge between the UK and the EU and damage relations for years.

There will be a lot of bruised feelings on all sides after Brexit, some worse than others. Nobody is going to get what they want or expect or were promised. Some will get the opposite and some will be seriously angry.

I don't expect a no deal exit and certainly not on March 29th. We are looking at a delay to June at minimum and probably longer and we are going to have to swallow some bitter pills. But sooner or later trade talks must start and to do that in an atmosphere of mutual distrust and recrimination will not help.

According to The Mail, Mrs May has given no clue to the EU 27 what she intends to ask for today. Even if they agree to look at her ideas it will take a few days before they can produce even a preliminary response. She has to make another statement to parliament next Wednesday, so how she expects the vote next week to be on anything other than the old, rejected agreement I really don't know. It is simply more time wasting.

Those, like the DUP and the ERG, pushing for the backstop to be replaced, also might want to consider what would happen in the unlikely event that the Commission did reopen talks. Other countries will demand other concessions. The EU have repeatedly said the deal is the 'best' and what comes back may be materially worse.  

To find a settlement that satisfies everyone is impossible but the prime minister seems not to realise this simple fact. The WA is a trade off, a compromise and perhaps the first really big one and so the most difficult. But make no mistake there are many more to come over the next few years. 

DUP might be happy with a rewrite but Gibraltar, fishermen and probably others won't.

But at the moment there is no sign of the Brexit fog clearing, if anything it's getting more impenetrable.