Things are developing rapidly as the prime minister prepares to address the House of Commons later today. She is about to rule out a no deal Brexit, according to The Daily Mail (HERE). Apart from every sentient human being in the country who would have thought that? If anything has been screamingly obvious for months it is that we won't leave on March 29th but it is being reported in shock-horror terms.
However, Downing Street refuses to confirm or deny it. I suspect it's true because three more ministers are threatening to resign unless she takes no deal off the table (HERE). These are Richard Harrington, Claire Perry and Margot James writing openly about it in The Daily Mail. There is also talk of a mass resignation of 15 ministers unless she commits to a delay if we are still without an agreed deal by the 13th March.
Watch out for a huge backlash from a furious ERG and other Tory Brexiteers.
And Labour are going to back a second, confirmatory vote (HERE), which I assume will be a question of accepting May's deal or remaining in the EU. I say this given the party's position of implacable opposition to a no-deal exit. It's not immediately clear if this means Labour will officially back the Peter Kyle amendment which is to vote for the deal on the understanding that a referendum will be held later.
This would make perfect sense to me. Accepting the deal would give us a transition period during which nothing would change and we could then hold a referendum sometime at the end of the year.
European elections would have to go ahead in May and we would have to elect MEPs with the understanding that if the new vote confirms the deal they would be out of a job at the end of 2020. It would create a few problems for the EU but I think they are solvable.
The Corbyn announcement is not quite as unequivocal as we might like, since it depends on Labour's own proposals failing to get backing from parliament this week. Corbyn is also facing a backlash from some of his MPs in leave constituencies with MPs John Mann and Caroline Flint both saying they won't support the policy.
For the PM to announce a delay, or a possible delay this afternoon would not be a surprise given the rising clamour from industry about the approaching abyss with no agreement in place. The aerospace industry group ADS say that the delay in reaching a settlement with the EU is "becoming a full economic crisis" (HERE). The Association of British Insurers warned yesterday (HERE) that if Britain leaves the European Union without a deal it could cause "long-lasting damage to the UK insurance industry".
Meanwhile Associated British Foods (HERE) warn of the "severe disruption and terrible consequences" as a result of a no deal Brexit. ABF own British Sugar, Twinings tea, Allinsons flour, Ovaltine, Askeys, Patak's and many other brands as well as manufacturing ingredients like Jordans Cereals and so on. They are an international business operating in 50 countries.
And the CEO of the world's largest asset management fund, Larry Fink, said (HERE) "The irresponsibility right now of the UK in coming to a resolution is putting more and more private sector organisations on alert. We’re spending more money than we ever dreamed we needed to do to start working toward Brexit."
When asset managers start calling the UK government "irresponsible" you know things cannot continue as they were. Something has to give. Let's see what Mrs May offers later today.
A crisis is coming - perhaps for both party leaders.
