Monday, 11 February 2019

THE GRIM BREXIT RESIGNATION

The newspapers were strangely lacking in any great revelatory developments on Brexit this weekend as if even the commentators who are paid to cover it are running out of things to say. There is a grim resignation about it. You wouldn't think we are little more than six weeks from disaster, on course for an almighty collision, the compass needle firmly pointed towards the waiting iceberg and the wheel lashed into position.

Meanwhile the crew is split into factions, holed up in different parts of the ship and have taken to letters. Theresa May has apparently written to Jeremy Corbyn (HERE) responding to his five conditions and asking for help to resolve the backstop issue. This is something she should have realised was necessary at the beginning and certainly after the 2017 election where she lost her majority. Trying to push something as enormous as Brexit through on a partisan basis was always wrong. It would have helped to heal divisions instead of making them worse.

Starting cross-party talks at the eleventh hour when tempers are running high on both sides is not a good basis. Had she adopted a more consensual approach things may have been quite different. According to The iNews (HERE):

"In her letter, Mrs May said she wanted discussions between Tory and Labour teams to start considering 'alternative arrangements' to the backstop contained within the withdrawal agreement.

"She also questioned whether the call for 'frictionless' trade would mean reneging on Labour’s commitment to end free movement.


"The fundamental negotiating challenge here is the EU’s position that completely frictionless trade is only possible if the UK stays in the single market," she said.


It looks as if Mrs May just wants Corbyns help to get her deal through. There is no sign of any compromise on the customs union at all. And you can see why. The price of moving marginally closer to the opposition is fury in party ranks at both association and parliamentary level as the iNews reveals that some local associations have already written to the party chairman:

"In a letter to Tory Party chair Brandon Lewis, the activists said any attempt to work with Labour to secure a deal or renege on manifesto commitments would be 'catastrophic' for the party and lead to 'severe electoral defeats' in the forthcoming May local elections".

"Specifically, we are deeply worried about…reports that the Government is seeking a ‘customs arrangement’ with the EU and may reach out to the Labour Party," the activists state.

"In a further ominous sign for the Prime Minister, the influential European Research Group of Conservative Brexiteers was advising its members not to comment on Mrs May’s decision to find common ground with Mr Corbyn.

"Jacob Rees-Mogg, chair of the ERG, pointedly refused to acknowledge Labour’s potential involvement, telling i: 'It is encouraging that the Prime Minister is looking for alternatives to the backstop'."


The Tory party looks more fragile by the hour and Labour are not much better.

The only other thing of note was a throwaway comment in The Sunday Times where an unnamed cabinet minister (they're always unnamed aren't they?) was saying Theresa May knows we need an extension to the Article 50 period but she's waiting for parliament to force her to ask for a delay so she doesn't get the blame. Not only is she stubborn, she is also a coward.

There may be various reasons for this odd state of affairs but my own opinion for the uneasy calm is that half the country doesn't accept we heading for an iceberg anyway under any circumstances while the other half can't believe the crew would let it happen. Give them a few more weeks and things will look different - either they will all be calm or all screaming their heads off.