The great geopolitical arm-wrestling match over the Irish backstop continues with not even the sign of a bead of sweat on our opponents. Meanwhile, red in the face and glistening from the effort we are still giving it one last heave. The other day Robert Peston HERE was asking what the PM might be asking the EU for in the 'alternative arrangements' - he said, "Amazingly - and with just eight weeks left before Brexit Day - May has still not told anyone in the EU what she might ask for, when she might ask and who she might ask".
Well this morning on Radio 4, we learned why. Marcus Fysh MP, one of the ERG mob explained that the working party of backbench Tory MPs, including some remainers like Nicky Morgan, are still working on what these alternative arrangements might be. Having watched the experts fail to reach a solution, the amateurs are now desperately trying. When they've decided what it is they want, the PM will be informed. May cuts a pathetic figure in all of this. She sat down to do the arm wrestling but can now barely be seen under a pile of bodies.
Whatever she eventually comes back from Brussels with, short of a complete rewriting of the backstop section of the Withdrawal Agreement, it will not be enough to satisfy the hard Brexiteers in the ERG (HERE). Steve Baker says adding some extra reassurances or even a legal codicil will not be enough.
I don't see the slightest chance of any alternative arrangements being reached. The EU have been rock solid on not reopening negotiations and even a codicil that rendered a central part of the agreement void is surely as unthinkable for them as it is for the ERG, albeit for totally opposite reasons.
If she does manage to return with something, however meaningful, to offer the ERG it will seem like the labours of Sisyphus where the king of Ephyra was punished for his craftiness and deception by being forced to roll an immense boulder up a hill only for it to roll down when it nears the top, repeating this action for eternity. May doesn't have eternity - although it might sometimes seem like it - just until the end of the month at most.
Liam Fox has dismissed any idea of remaining in the customs union saying it would not fulfil the promise the Tories made to leave the EU (HERE). Would that politicians were always so keen on fulfilling promises. He also says the EU would be 'irresponsible' not to reopen negotiations (HERE). This is like threatening to commit suicide and suggesting others are irresponsible for not preventing you doing it.
So, we look like we are back to where we have been for six months, ever since the Chequers plan was set out in July last year. Brexit isn't hard enough for the ERG and it's too hard for the rest of the Conservative MPs I don't see any deal acceptable to the EU being able to bridge the divide in the Tories.
The only possibility of reaching a deal is to join with the bulk of the Labour party in switching to a soft Brexit and remaining in a permanent customs union, but this would split the Tories. And let us not forget Brexit is the price Europe is being asked to pay to keep the party together, so the PM places a very high value on it.
If May is so intent on avoiding a historic schism separating the party she will have to consider another referendum at some point.
