Well, the looming Tory party split has loomed. But before getting to that, can I tell you the Article 50 Challenge's legal team will appear in The Court of Appeal later this morning, arguing the referendum was not free or fair after two Electoral Commission reports found that the referendum campaign had been dogged by illegality and corruption and it was therefore unconstitutional. The case is being live streamed on YouTube from 10:00am and you can see it HERE.
If the court rules in our favour, it might means that the Article 50 process, which requires withdrawal to be done according to our 'own constitutional requirements,' has not been done lawfully - this would be earth shattering and therefore perhaps not altogether likely - but we can always hope.
Now, back to Mrs May's party unity problems. Anna Soubry, Heidi Allen and Sarah Wollaston have quit the party (HERE) and (HERE) and aligned themselves with The Independent Group. Another Labour MP, Joan Ryan left Labour yesterday bringing the newly formed group to eleven, bigger than the DUP and equal to the Liberals. TIG is firmly anti Brexit. The three Tory MPs all believed the Conservative party has shifted significantly to the right, with Soubry saying it had effectively been taken over by former UKIPPERS, encouraged to join by Leave means Leave.
Sarah Wollaston referred to the Tory party currently as Blukip and Soubry said the party had been infiltrated by a purple momentum. I confess to some sympathy for them. Soubry said she wasn't leaving the part, the party had already left them. Up until 2017, I had always voted Conservative but never again, because I feel exactly the same.
Under Blair there was virtually no difference between the main parties, now there is a policy chasm as Corbyn and May, she egged on by the ERG and he by his own political credo, have gone more and more to the extremes. I think I am the same as I ever was and simply couldn't contemplate voting for Nigel Adams and the Tory party ever again. I despise what they are.
The three rebels talked in their press conference about the well-funded social media campaign against any anti-Brexit MPs, which urged people to join their associations and vote to deselect them.
Is this a break-the-mould moment? Maybe, only time will tell. The Conversation (HERE) thinks it is a "huge statement against Brexit tribalism that could really change British politics" and I really hope that it is but the realist inside me says it will probably end in failure. You can by the way make a donation to the group on the website HERE. They might not have much cohesion or policy framework yet but we can help with funding, at least that's something.
I assume the three former Conservative ladies will be criticised for leaving and Conservative Home has started already. In an article (HERE) by Paul Goodman, he claims the defections might even help the PM and at the end makes an attempt to lift spirits and rally the readership with this piece of seriously wishful thinking, particularly in the final sentence:
"The key Conservatives are those Ministers who are threatening to resign: David Gauke, Amber Rudd, Greg Clark, Tobias Ellwood and – at the spectacularly detatched [sic] and relentless end of the spectrum – Richard Harrington. Number Ten will claim that it has made a real breakthrough on the backstop, that the deal is poised to pass, and that any Minister who quits will be throwing his career away for nothing. This is reported to be the position now taken by Philip Hammond.
"A question then is whether Letwin and friends persist in arguing otherwise. At any rate, claims this morning that May now plans to rush a meaningful vote forward make sense – at least, as an option to be mulled during the next few days. She is off to Brussels today. One can see the plan: move quickly while Labour is splitting; get a quick gloss on the backstop; dangle the prospect of the Malthouse Compromise for the trade talks stage, get an end date for the backstop, square the ERG – and Bob’s your uncle; Theresa’s your aunt. The game’s afoot!"
I am rather afraid that Bob is not Theresa May's uncle.
This morning the BBC report the PM should expect more MP's to leave the party (HERE). The worst of it is that she has spent her entire disastrous premiership trying to deliver a Brexit that kept her party together and healed the divisions in the nation. She hasn't managed either.
It may even be that she delivers a Brexit without securing any sort of deal - something a seven year old could have achieved since it only involves sending a letter and waiting for a two-year timer to run down. Even I could have done it.
BuzzFeed News (HERE) put a dampener on Goodman's optimism:
"When asked about the reports, one senior EU official replied, '[it is] wishful thinking.' Another EU source said there was no chance of a 'deal in the desert.' 'It’s rather a ‘mirage’ or ‘hallucination,’ said the source. European governments think they have seen this film before — and it doesn’t end well. 'It is reminiscent of December,' a senior official from a major European government said.
The 'deal in the desert' is a reference to Sharm el Sheikh and I'll post more about this at lunch time.
