Readers of this blog will know that I have always believed it to be unthinkable for any government to seriously propose leaving the EU without a deal. Despite what the PM has been saying for years, I don't think she ever really thought we would or could. A no deal Brexit would have a totally avoidable but devastating impact on our economy, perhaps for years. It was all a negotiating ploy to pressurise the EU into giving us a 'good deal' - whatever that is and there is a different version of it for every Brexiteer.
But sticking to the the 'no deal is better than a bad deal' mantra has been entirely unhelpful in getting a good deal because the EU never believed it either. It was dishonest and just not credible.
Where it has had a disproportionate impact is in this country, especially with the ordinary man or woman in the street, the ones who were gullible enough to take it literally. This was brought home to me the other day listening to another interminable debate in the HoC. Dominic Grieve typically gave one of the few sensible speeches which you can read on Hansard (HERE). Part of it was this:
"However, I will just say this—and I will repeat it, I suspect, ad nauseam until this whole sorry saga is over: I only have to look at the emails I get on Brexit from people who want to leave to see that the principle theme is the demand to leave in the form of a catastrophic no-deal Brexit".
MPs like Grieve are getting emails from members of the public demanding we leave without a deal. This is madness. We have a pretty good idea how bad things could get under those circumstances yet this is what people think they want. The official and unofficial warnings have gone unheeded. He went on:
"The reason that I am getting those emails is that people have, in my opinion, been thoroughly misled over a long period by a form of propaganda that believes that the EU is evil. This was rather highlighted by the extraordinary speech of my hon. Friend the Member for South Dorset (Richard Drax), who put forward the stab-in-the-back theory. I am sorry, but these are mad fantasies. They are absolute fantasies about the EU and its relationship with us. So people are writing in and saying that is what we should be doing, but I have to say that we are not going to be doing it".
To reinforce this perception professor John Curtice the nation's leading psephologist, has written an article (HERE) on the latest polling figures and specifically mentions this mad phenomenon: He says, "If Mrs May cannot secure support for her deal, many Leave voters would still prefer to leave without a deal".
"When presented with a list of five options as to what the UK should do next, 51% of Leave voters say we should exit without a deal – very similar to the 48% who expressed that view as long ago as last September. Only 16% of Leave voters (and 16% of Conservatives) think leaving the EU should be delayed until we have a better idea of what kind of deal would get most support".
The nation has been badly misled - by its own government. The average person in the street is entitled to take the prime minister at her word and to believe that leaving without a deal is, as she has maintained, better that leaving with a bad one. At least they would think it will leave us no worse off than we are now, and probably better off.
"When presented with a list of five options as to what the UK should do next, 51% of Leave voters say we should exit without a deal – very similar to the 48% who expressed that view as long ago as last September. Only 16% of Leave voters (and 16% of Conservatives) think leaving the EU should be delayed until we have a better idea of what kind of deal would get most support".
The nation has been badly misled - by its own government. The average person in the street is entitled to take the prime minister at her word and to believe that leaving without a deal is, as she has maintained, better that leaving with a bad one. At least they would think it will leave us no worse off than we are now, and probably better off.
Nothing could be further from the truth.
Yet all the talk by Theresa May and her ministers about no deal being better than a bad deal has made it all but impossible in this country to argue against it. Half the nation (including some MPs) have been brainwashed by government propaganda. It is a tragedy and will make the inevitable climb down so much harder to manage.
Any skilled negotiator tries to manage expectations and sets a modest target so that later when the negotiations are concluded they can claim a victory by over-delivering on the original promises. We have done the precise opposite.
