BoJo's latest effort for The Telegraph yesterday (HERE) is once again comically polemical, full of wishful thinking and completely stripped of facts. He doesn't make any reference to the correction the paper was forced to publish last week and simply carries on in his usual fictional style. He defends himself from the charge that he is a 'hard right extreme fascist' alongside men like Steve Bannon. I don't believe he is, but he is a 'useful idiot' in furthering the aims of the hard right although he doesn't seem to realise it.
He tries to convince the readers how much better the political atmosphere will be once Brexit is over. He writes:
"So don’t despair. Don’t give up. It is going to happen, and at that wonderful moment it will be as though the lights have come on at some raucous party; or as if a turbulent sea has withdrawn to expose the creatures of the shore. We will suddenly see things differently, and in that moment of clarity – when we finally get this thing done – I hope and believe that one of the distortions of Brexit will come to an end.
"The argument in the past few years has become so all-consuming that it has introduced a ridiculous polarity into political discussion. By dividing the country into Leavers and Remainers, the debate has tended towards stereotype".
He seems to genuinely believe that somehow, once Brexit happens we remainers will become born-again leavers and will forget the EU altogether. Personally, if Brexit happens (and we are still a little way off that at the moment) I will campaign for any party that offers a referendum on re-joining the EU. I suspect I won't be alone. The debate will continue right up to the date we are once again a member of the European Union. It isn't going to end in the way Johnson thinks - which is like this:
"The sooner we can deliver Brexit, the sooner the nonsense will end, and the current 'Brexchosis' will gently fade from the population. And then – faster than I think we now believe possible – the Tory party will find that the polarising effect has gone".
There is zero evidence the 'polarising effect' of Brexit is going to 'gently fade' as he claims. As for the Tories, they're finished.
The divisions are set to go on for years, not least because Brexit itself will not be delivered for years. David Smith is an economist who writes a column in the Sunday Times. Last week (HERE) he was looking at our trading position (which isn't good - see below) but in his piece he quotes Lord Macpherson, former Treasury permanent secretary:
"We do not know, of course, where we will end up, and when the uncertainty will lift. Lord Macpherson, Treasury permanent secretary until 2016, its top civil servant, says there is now no chance of a trade agreement with the EU by the time of the next election, due in 2022 (but watch this space), and probably not by the one after that (2027)".
Lord Macpherson doesn't believe we will have a trade deal in place before 2027 so we are looking at another eight years while the uncertainty persists and more importantly arguments rage constantly about either extending the transition/implementation period or jumping out without a trade deal on the grounds that the EU is dragging its heels. In other words precisely the same polarising effect will be apparent and probably ever more charged.
As I said yesterday, 'facts' flee before Boris and this week he makes this totally unsupported claim:
"Soon, if we can get Brexit over the line, we will finally be able to begin the positive narrative about Brexit Britain – the world leader in so many fields, set to overtake Germany, by 2050, as the largest and most prosperous economy in Europe. That is the opportunity. We cannot afford to fail".
Golly! What can you say? BoJo produces not a shred of evidence to support this wild assertion. I have worked with Germans - there is less than zero chance we will overtake them by 2050. Oscar Wilde once wrote,"After all, what is a fine lie? Simply that which is its own evidence" and Johnson is simply telling a fib. In truth there is more evidence we will be going the opposite way. PWC, one of the big accountancy firms forecast we will slip from fifth to seventh this year (HERE) in the league table of world economies as France and India overtake us.
And going back to the economy and David Smith, he says:
"New figures show that in the latest three months, December-February. The trade deficit in goods was £41.4bn, a record, and £6.5bn up on the previous three months.
"Over the latest 12 months, Britain was in the red on trade in goods by a whopping £146.4bn, another record, and too close to £150bn for comfort. Even taking into account services, in which the UK runs a surplus, the deficit widened sharply in the latest three months and was just under £39bn over the latest three months.
"That £146.4bn, by the way, compared with an annual goods trade deficit of £138bn for the whole of 2018 and £118bn in 2015. Until 2012, the deficit had never been above £100bn; 20 years ago it was comfortably below £30bn".
Meanwhile, Germany has also been enjoying record trade figures (HERE) - only their's are surpluses.
We won't begin to solve the nation's problems until we are honest with ourselves and BoJo isn't helping. He only makes matters worse.
We won't begin to solve the nation's problems until we are honest with ourselves and BoJo isn't helping. He only makes matters worse.
