Monday 29 April 2019

CONSERVATIVE PARTY TROUBLES CONTINUE TO GROW

The Tories are getting deeper in the mire. They are in for a certain drubbing in this week's local council elections, set to lose between 400 and 800 seats with many of their supporters opting for Farage's Brexit party.  Paul Goodman makes an appeal (HERE) to readers of the Conservative Home website not to punish local councillors for the government's Brexit problems at national level. I fear it will make no difference judging by the 327 responses, none of which seem to agree with him. They are intent on sending a clear message to Mrs May about the failure to deliver Brexit.

Perhaps this isn't surprising although you would have thought by now at least there would be an acknowledgement that Brexit is going to be difficult. If nothing else, the last two years have shown the enormity of the challenge of unwinding and unpicking 45 years of close integration, but none of it counts for anything with the dyed-in-the-wool Brexiteers at local association level. I suspect they are mostly out of the Farage - Bridgen - Francois mould. Loud mouthed, unthinking, just get on with it.

Camilla Long, a columnist in The Sunday Times thinks Farage is now more dangerous because he's shed the 'swivel-eyed loons' and has become her 'dream team'. God help us all. She writes that she fears his Brexit party because Nigel, "now appears to be thinking exactly what I'm thinking, which is, what an execrable and heinous moment it would be if we failed to deliver Brexit. Never mind which way you voted, not leaving now would be the biggest political scandal of my life"

Err, no - not for me it wouldn't. Delivering Brexit would be a far bigger scandal. She reserves her worst for those of us who marched through London on the 23rd March:

"It was the People's March that did it for me - all those negroni socialists who had the arrogance to think they were marching on the side of moral 'rightness' when what they really want is to override the democratic process. How dare they?"

I'm not sure any of the people I marched with know what a Negroni is (it's an Italian cocktail: one part gin, one part vermouth rosso, and one part Campari, garnished with orange peel - apparently - I had to look it up). Personally, I'm a Timothy Taylor's man myself.  You would have to be paid to write a column in the pro-Brexit Sunday Times to think a million champagne socialists stumped through London on that day. Ms Long is amazingly out of touch. You can't 'override' democracy by calling for a public vote.

As for Farage shedding the swivel eyed loons, I don't think so - he IS a swivel eyed loon!

On Friday the nicotine stained man-frog (political and constitutional systems demolished to order) was in Pennsylvania, telling an audience who had come to hear a talk on the rise of populism - and they have the right man there:

"Let me take you to a town called Oldham in the North of England where literally on one side of the street everybody is white and on the other side of the street everybody is black.

"The twain never actually meet, there is no assimilation. There are whole streets in Oldham of people who have lived in my country for over 30 years who don't speak a single word of the English language. These, folks, are divided societies".

He has been roundly criticised for his comments (HERE). The local MP, Jim McMahon responded on Twitter: "Oldham is not defined by Farage, or anyone else looking to stoke up tensions and create division. We are bound together by a shared future".

David Cameron once described UKIP as a bunch of "fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists" and you can see that Nigel (he comes out of the closet occasionally) intends to make Brexit in the image of UKIP.  He just can't help himself.

All of these people are still pushing the hard Brexit agenda but I wonder what they will say when  it all goes wrong (assuming it happens at all). Remember, it isn't enough for Brexit just to leave things unchanged. It has to be a huge success doesn't it?

We have been at it for three years already and essentially committed about £4 billion and goodness knows how much civil service and parliamentary time on Brexit, not to mention the private sector costs and time preparing and planning for it. This is quite apart from the continued divisions, and arguments and the millions of words written in the press and media about it. The costs, both tangible and unseen, must run into many £billions. And we have actually got nowhere, nothing has changed so far.

If Brexit does happen, and we're still uncertain on it, I wonder what these people are going to tell their kids? More importantly what is Farage going to say when things go from bad to worse for the people of Clacton, Oldham and elsewhere? When racial tensions spill over and impoverished communities become even more impoverished, what will he say? Yes, I know you're having to queue in fear at your local food bank - but at least you're sovereign?

Imagine yourself in the Brexiteers' position, you have been repeatedly warned the result of your action will be negative and badly so. You dismissed them all with not even an acknowledgement they might have a point. You press on and demand evermore extreme action, doubling down at every stage.

There will surely come a day of reckoning for Farage and his ilk.

Talks between Labour and the government enter their fifth week today with Chancellor Hammond and his shadow, John McDonnell set to join the teams. However, nobody expects a breakthrough before Thursday's local elections - if at all.  Corbyn is coming under mounting pressure to commit unequivocally to a confirmatory vote on the final deal and I think for him to refuse would blast the Labour party in two.  Similarly, for May to agree to a permanent customs union and a vote would do the same for the Tories.  I cannot see either giving way.

Conservative chairman Brandon Lewis (HERE) is also on the horns of a dilemma. He is trying to give the impression that they aren't bothered about the European elections because his priority is not to have to fight them at all. In other words he wants a deal sorted before May 22nd. He knows they will do badly again and wants to be able to say it was because they didn't really campaign properly. Lewis knows it will only be a waste of money from the Conservative point of view anyway.

Brexit is becoming the Tories bĂȘte noire.  Whatever they do will damage the brand irrevocably.  Every signpost to the future has disaster written on it for them.